Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $105,200 (4-hour EMA120 + Bull-Bear Boundary)

* Support Level: $103,800 (On-chain Cost Concentration Area + Short Liquidation Trigger Point)

* On-chain Signal: Daily trading volume in the range of $104,000-$105,000 reaches 93,000 BTC; if it falls below $103,800, it will trigger $480 million in long liquidation.

Bull-Bear Catalysts:

* Bullish: Initial jobless claims data worse than expected → Strengthened rate cut expectations; Semler and other companies increasing holdings causes a following trend

* Bearish: BlackRock continues to reduce BTC holdings; Risk-off sentiment rises ahead of non-farm payroll data

Probability Distribution:

* Sideways Down ( $103,800-$105,200): 55% (Waiting for data guidance + ETH siphoning effect)

* Accelerated Breakdown (falling below $103,800): 30% (Initial jobless claims > 245,000 + USD Index rebounding)

* Rebound Repair (breaking above $105,200): 15% (Initial jobless claims < 230,000 + Short covering)

Trading Suggestions:

* At the current price of $104,700, a limit sell order can be placed (stop-loss at $105,500), target $103,800;

* If initial jobless claims > 245,000, chase the shorts to $102,500;

* If breaking $105,200, reverse to a long position, target $106,000.

📌 Risk Warning:

1. Tonight at 20:30, US Initial Jobless Claims—if data exceeds 240,000 for two consecutive weeks, it may trigger panic selling due to “economic recession”;

2. Tomorrow night at 20:30, US Non-Farm Payroll Data—market has priced in 130,000 new jobs; if actual is <100,000, it will increase volatility;