Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Key Technical Levels:

* Resistance Level: $103,500 (4-hour EMA200 + Bull-Bear Divide)

* Support Level: $98,200 (Bull Market Starting Point in December 2024)

* On-Chain Signals: Daily turnover in the range of $100,000-$102,000 reaches 140,000 BTC; if it falls below $98,200, it will trigger $720 million in long liquidations.

Bull-Bear Catalysts:

* Bullish: Non-farm payroll data < 100,000 → Soaring interest rate cut expectations; El Salvador cooperation announcement

* Bearish: Non-farm payroll data > 150,000 → Recession fears dispelled but interest rate hike expectations reignited; Tax reform bill passed

Probability Distribution:

* Sideways Down (98,200-103,500 USD): 60% (Liquidity contraction before data + Aftershocks from leverage liquidation)

* Extreme Breakdown (falling below 98,200 USD): 25% (Non-farm payroll data exceeds expectations + Tax reform panic)

* Violent Rebound (breaking above 103,500 USD): 15% (Non-farm payroll data < 75,000 + Federal Reserve emergency rate cut hints)

Action Suggestions:

* Current price $101,400, can place a limit sell order (stop loss at $103,800), target $98,500;

* If non-farm payroll data < 100,000, reverse to a long position to speculate on a short-term rebound to $105,000;

* Break above $103,500, chase long to $106,200 (short covering + policy expectation recovery).

📌 Today's Core Event: 20:30 US May Non-Farm Payroll Data - Market expects an increase of 130,000 (previous value 177,000); if actual ≤ 75,000, it will trigger a “recession trade,” but the data's authenticity is questionable due to government layoffs. It is recommended to wait 15 minutes after the data is released before taking action to avoid flash crash risks.