Directory:
1. Data on large token unlocks this week.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read of weekly popular tokens' rises and falls / sector fund flows;
3. Dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF.
4. #BTC Liquidation map data interpretation;
5. Key macro events this week and key forecasts and interpretations for the crypto market.
1. Data on large token unlocks this week.
Coinank data shows that this week #ENA , #eigen , TAIKO, etc. will experience a large one-time token unlock, among which:
Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.63 million tokens at 3 PM on June 2, accounting for 0.70% of the current circulation, worth about $12.5 million.
Eigenlayer (EIGEN) will unlock approximately 1.29 million tokens at 3 AM on June 4, accounting for 0.42% of the current circulation, worth about $1.7 million.
Cetus Protocol (CETUS) will unlock approximately 8.33 million tokens at 8 AM on June 4, accounting for 1.15% of the current circulation, worth about $1.1 million.
IOTA (IOTA) will unlock approximately 8.63 million tokens at 8 AM on June 4, accounting for 0.23% of the current circulation, worth about $1.6 million.
Taiko (TAIKO) will unlock approximately 81.55 million tokens at 8 PM on June 5, accounting for 69.37% of the current circulation, worth about $46.9 million.
Spectral (SPEC) will unlock approximately 3.62 million tokens at 8 AM on June 6, accounting for 17.57% of the current circulation, worth about $3.7 million.
Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens at 8 AM on June 7, accounting for 22.51% of the current circulation, worth about $6.1 million.
In June, over $2.7 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked, primarily including #sui ($206.33 million), #zro ($64.29 million), and APT ($58.52 million).
We believe that the multiple large token unlock events this week need to be comprehensively assessed in conjunction with market supply and demand and project fundamentals. Firstly, Taiko (TAIKO) has the most outstanding unlocking scale, with its 81.55 million tokens accounting for 69.37% of the current circulation, worth about $46.9 million. Such a high proportion of circulation flooding into the market at once may trigger significant selling pressure, especially since its ecological applications are not yet fully formed, and there is a lack of sufficient demand to support it in the short term, posing a high risk of price decline. Secondly, Ethena (ENA), while unlocking only 0.7%, has a structural contradiction in its token economy based on historical data: the protocol relies on token incentives to maintain the scale of the stablecoin USDe, but ENA lacks a real profit distribution mechanism, leading to inflationary pressure and inadequate value support. Moreover, both Neon (NEON) and Spectral (SPEC) have unlocking proportions exceeding 15%, while their market capitalizations are relatively small, resulting in low market liquidity, which may amplify price volatility.
Overall, the impact of token unlocks on the market needs to be viewed in layers: Projects with high unlocking ratios, such as TAIKO, face short-term liquidity shocks, while projects like ENA, despite lower ratios, suffer from long-term deflationary mechanism flaws, requiring caution regarding the chain reaction after unlocking. Additionally, the current crypto market is under the backdrop of Federal Reserve policy adjustments and tightening macro funding, coupled with this week's total unlocking scale exceeding $369 million, the market needs to digest multiple selling pressures, and investor sentiment may lean towards caution. Future attention should be paid to the actual flow of unlocked tokens and the project's ecological construction progress to assess whether the market can effectively absorb the supply increment.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read of weekly popular tokens' rises and falls / sector fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that due to the overall downward trend in the market, in the past week, the crypto market, categorized by concept sectors, saw net inflows in sectors such as the Arbitrum ecosystem, Optimism ecosystem, and Binance Smart Chain, while Launchpool and fan tokens had relatively small outflows.
In the past 7 days, the token growth ranking is as follows (selected from the top 200 by market capitalization): MASK, ZEN, SPX, IOTX, and AB among others have relatively high growth rates, and this week, strong tokens trading opportunities can continue to be prioritized.
3. Dynamics of Bitcoin spot ETF funds.
CoinAnk data indicates that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $267.64 million yesterday, that is, this Monday.
In the last trading week (Eastern Time from May 27 to May 30), the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $157 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net inflow last week was BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $584 million, and the historical total net inflow of IBIT has reached $48.57 billion. The second was Grayscale's Bitcoin mini trust ETF BTC, with a weekly net inflow of $19.81 million, and the historical total net inflow of BTC has reached $1.4 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest net outflow last week was Ark Invest and 21Shares' ETF ARKB, with a weekly net outflow of $282 million, and the historical total net inflow of ARKB has reached $2.44 billion.
We believe that the significant differentiation pattern of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs in early June reflects the adjustments in institutional investor strategies and changes in market sentiment. Although BlackRock's IBIT maintains its leading position with a single-week net inflow of $584 million, the overall market has begun to see net outflows (last week $157 million, this Monday $267 million), indicating an increasing tendency for funds to seek safe havens in the short term.
BlackRock's IBIT has reached a historical total net inflow of $48.57 billion, and its continuous fundraising ability is attributed to its low fees (0.12%-0.25%) and institutional fund allocation demand, especially the behavior of BlackRock's internal funds increasing their holdings in IBIT has strengthened market confidence. However, compared to the previous weeks' single-week high inflow of $842 million, the recent slowdown in growth may indicate that some investors are taking profits at high Bitcoin prices.
Grayscale achieved a net inflow of $19.81 million through the BTC mini trust, possibly related to its fee reduction (from 1.5% to 0.3%) and product structure adjustment, but this scale is far from sufficient to reverse the long-term outflow trend of GBTC (historical net outflow exceeds $18.8 billion). In comparison, Ark Invest's ARKB saw a net outflow of $282 million in a single week, highlighting the vulnerability of small and medium institutional ETFs during liquidity tightening periods, exacerbated by their high fees (0.21%) and shrinking market share.
It is worth noting that the flow of ETF funds forms a negative feedback loop with Bitcoin prices. The current continuous net outflow may reflect a repricing of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy or be related to regulatory dynamics (such as stricter SEC custody reviews). If the macro environment does not improve, short-term outflow pressure may further suppress Bitcoin prices, prompting investors to turn to more cost-effective leading ETF products.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $112,000 to create a new historical high, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges will reach $9.6 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $100,600, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges will reach $5.43 billion.
We believe that the current Bitcoin liquidation threshold and intensity distribution reveal the risk structure of the derivatives market. Data from June 2025 shows that if BTC breaks through $112,000, the intensity of short liquidations will reach $9.6 billion, increasing more than tenfold from the $884 million intensity corresponding to $88,000 in March 2025, indicating an exponential expansion of market leverage and risk exposure. Conversely, if it drops below $100,600, it will trigger $5.43 billion in long liquidations, which, although lower than the short scale at the same time, is still significantly higher than early data, reflecting that the dense accumulation of long positions at key support levels may exacerbate downward risks.
The core of liquidation intensity lies in the potential severity of liquidity shocks, rather than the actual amount to be liquidated. High-intensity short liquidations may trigger a 'short squeeze' effect, where prices break resistance levels and trigger a chain of stop-loss orders, accelerating market upward movement; while long liquidations are prone to form a negative feedback loop of panic selling. The current long-short threshold has narrowed to about $11,400, highlighting the intense competition in price-sensitive ranges, where any directional breakthrough may lead to significant volatility due to liquidity waves.
It is worth noting that the dynamic adjustment of the market's leverage structure has led to a continuous increase in liquidation thresholds. Compared to the $104,000 breakthrough in January 2025 corresponding to a short intensity of $260 million, the current data has increased 37-fold, reflecting both an increase in investors' risk appetite and a warning sign of systemic risk accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to liquidity verification after price breakthroughs; if the actual liquidation amount is significantly lower than predicted, it may indicate a substantial improvement in market depth; conversely, it may trigger price overshooting.
5. Key macro events this week and key forecasts and interpretations for the crypto market.
CoinAnk data shows:
June 3: Binance Alpha and Binance Contracts will launch Bondex (BDXN).
The re-staking protocol YieldNest plans to initiate TGE.
June 5: The SEC will hold a conference on emerging trends in asset management, with representatives from institutions such as BlackRock participating.
June 6: The U.S. will announce the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data for May.
From June 2 to June 8, many Federal Reserve officials will successively give speeches.
We believe that from the perspective of market dynamics and the macro environment, a series of events in early June 2025 will impact the crypto market in the following three aspects.
New projects and protocol upgrades provide localized stimulation; Binance launched BDXN tokens and contract trading on June 3 and attracted users to participate through an airdrop event, which may temporarily boost market activity, but caution is needed regarding the volatility risk brought by high-leverage trading of new assets. On the same day, YieldNest initiated a token generation event (TGE); if its re-staking mechanism is successfully implemented, it may inject liquidity into the DeFi track, but the actual utility needs to be observed based on project progress.
The structural impact of regulation and institutional trends: The SEC's asset management meeting on June 5 involves traditional institutions such as BlackRock; if the meeting releases positive signals for crypto assets (like spot ETFs), it may boost market confidence; however, if it emphasizes tightening compliance, it could suppress speculative sentiment. The SEC's decision on the physical redemption of ETFs remains a key variable.
Macroeconomic data dominates market sentiment: The non-farm employment data for May and intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials announced on June 6 are core variables. If non-farm employment exceeds expectations (similar to 272,000 in May 2024), it may strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, causing the dollar to strengthen and risk assets to come under pressure. Conversely, if the data is weak (such as an unemployment rate rising above 4%), it may alleviate concerns about liquidity tightening, benefiting the crypto market. Furthermore, if Federal Reserve officials lean towards a 'hawkish' stance, it will further amplify market volatility.
Comprehensive impact: Short-term project benefits may trigger localized market movements, but the overall direction of the market still depends on macro data and policy expectations. Investors need to be cautious of sharp fluctuations before and after the non-farm data release, and pay attention to whether the SEC meeting releases signals clarifying the regulatory framework, which could provide key support for medium- to long-term inflows into the crypto market.
