Today's BTC futures market liquidation liquidity has three pieces of information:
1. After the price began to rebound as expected in the quote, there has not been a significant influx of shorts; at least the funding rate has not decreased, but rather has slightly increased...
2. From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the current price action resembles a weak liquidation targeting short sellers, given that the last three rebounds have each been slightly higher than the previous ones, this structure will make short sellers quite troubled...
3. The previously supportive liquidity gap at 103k has been completely filled, making the area below it filled with evenly distributed and substantial bullish liquidity...
From these three pieces of information, we can conclude:
The short-term price rebound target will be at 106.8k, and if favorable news pushes it, in an extreme case, it could be around 108k, but the liquidity gap above 108k will become a resistance for the price to continue rising... Not to mention, there is actually a smaller liquidity gap at 106.8k...
If the price is blocked at any liquidity gap, then the short-term rebound is likely to end, followed by a liquidation targeting the bulls...
We should hope that the price does not create a new low, but rather maintains at least a week of range-bound oscillation, giving short sellers an opportunity to add positions, to see if there are chances to liquidate the large liquidity at high levels;
But just in case, I mean just in case, if the price accidentally drops below a new low, it will be like throwing a burning match into a pool filled with gasoline, directly starting a new round of bullish liquidation...
Currently, the target for downward liquidation will be at least around 100k, and since there is a technical support level near 101k, this trend will likely have a long lower shadow below 101k...
In summary, as the funding rate has turned positive from negative, and there has not been a significant increase in short liquidity, I am subjectively inclined to see a small rebound upwards before the price begins to correct, thus confirming the upper boundary of the low range.
As for whether it can create a new low, we will see after the rebound is in place and begins to correct~
After all, if it goes straight up, the large block of text above will have been written for nothing...