After Bitcoin broke below the 20-day moving average on May 29, it rebounded over the past three days, and today it has once again retested the 20-day moving average, continuing to challenge the 106k resistance level. Selling pressure remains relatively strong. From a structural perspective, this rebound is nearly over; either a larger oscillating range will form between 104-106K or it will continue to pull back. If one wants to make medium to long-term long positions, they need to wait for key support levels below. From a volume-price relationship perspective, the rebound volume is significantly lower than the volume during the decline, indicating relatively weak buying, so the probability of breaking directly above the 20-day moving average is low, and there may be another test of the 102k support level.
The monthly K-line of Ethereum over the past three months shows a typical morning star pattern, and the right-side bullish candle is significantly larger in volume and length than the left-side bearish candle, indicating a stronger buying advantage. Therefore, the probability of Ethereum continuing to rise and challenge the 3100-3500 resistance zone after a pullback is relatively high.
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, most altcoins experienced a pullback, such as the previously strong performer $wct, which directly copied the trading tactics of $Layer, leading to an instant drop, leaving holders with no time to react. This year, the manipulation of altcoins has become quite evident, and everyone must be careful when choosing targets. Currently, altcoins are rebounding alongside the market, but whether this can be sustained will depend on Bitcoin's performance. However, as we approach the Q3-Q4 cycle, we will definitely see the行情 we expect.
[Q3-Q4 Narrative Battle] AI, RWA, DePIN... Who will ignite the main upward wave?
(1) 1-3 month window period, brewing the main upward wave narrative.
Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate quickly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), where each small hotspot may only have a 1-3 month window period.
This fragmentation of narratives and high-frequency rotation reflects the current market's scarcity of attention and the dual constraints of capital seeking efficiency. In fact, it is not difficult to find that typical small narrative cycles follow a six-stage model: 'proof of concept → capital testing → amplification of public opinion → FOMO entry → valuation overextension → capital withdrawal'. Want to profit in this model?
The key is to enter during the 'proof of concept' to 'capital testing' stage and exit at the peak of 'FOMO entry'.
The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game of attention resources. However, there are technical correlations and conceptual progressions between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) in AI Infra and the A2A (Agent-to-Agent) interaction standard are actually a technical reconstruction of the underlying narrative of AI Agents.
If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hotspots, forming systematic upgrade linkages, and genuinely settle into a sustainable value loop during the linkage process, it is very likely that a super narrative akin to DeFi Summer with a main upward wave level will emerge. From the current small narrative pattern, AI infrastructure is the most likely to achieve a breakthrough first.
If the underlying technologies such as MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to build a super narrative similar to 'AI Summer'.
After Bitcoin broke below the 20-day moving average on May 29, it rebounded over the past three days, and today it has once again retested the 20-day moving average, continuing to challenge the 106k resistance level. Selling pressure remains relatively strong, and trading in the oscillating range is advisable for short-term fluctuations without a clear long or short pattern.
BTC
Structurally, this rebound is nearly over; either a larger oscillating range will form between 104-106K or it will continue to pull back. If one wants to make medium to long-term long positions, they need to wait for key support levels below.
From a volume-price relationship perspective, the rebound volume is significantly lower than the volume during the decline, indicating relatively weak buying, so the probability of breaking directly above the 20-day moving average is low, and there may be another test of the 102k support level.
Ethereum
The monthly K-line of Ethereum over the past three months shows a typical morning star pattern, and the right-side bullish candle is significantly larger in volume and length than the left-side bearish candle, indicating a stronger buying advantage. Therefore, the probability of Ethereum continuing to rise and challenge the 3100-3500 resistance zone after a pullback is relatively high.
Altcoin
During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, most altcoins experienced a pullback, such as the previously strong performer $wct, which directly copied the trading tactics of $Layer, leading to an instant drop, leaving holders with no time to react. This year, the manipulation of altcoins has become quite evident, and everyone must be careful when choosing targets.
Currently, altcoins are rebounding alongside the market, but whether this can be sustained will depend on Bitcoin's performance. However, as we approach the Q3-Q4 cycle, we will definitely see the行情 we expect.
[Q3-Q4 Narrative Battle] AI, RWA, DePIN... Who will ignite the main upward wave?
(1) 1-3 month window period, brewing the main upward wave narrative.
Before the main technical narrative takes shape, various small narratives rotate quickly, from RWA to DePIN, from AI Agent to AI Infra (MCP+A2A), where each small hotspot may only have a 1-3 month window period.
This fragmentation of narratives and high-frequency rotation reflects the current market's scarcity of attention and the dual constraints of capital seeking efficiency. In fact, it is not difficult to find that typical small narrative cycles follow a six-stage model: 'proof of concept → capital testing → amplification of public opinion → FOMO entry → valuation overextension → capital withdrawal'. Want to profit in this model?
The key is to enter during the 'proof of concept' to 'capital testing' stage and exit at the peak of 'FOMO entry'.
The competition between small narratives is essentially a zero-sum game of attention resources. However, there are technical correlations and conceptual progressions between narratives. For example, the MCP (Model Context Protocol) in AI Infra and the A2A (Agent-to-Agent) interaction standard are actually a technical reconstruction of the underlying narrative of AI Agents.
If subsequent narratives can continue the previous hotspots, forming systematic upgrade linkages, and genuinely settle into a sustainable value loop during the linkage process, it is very likely that a super narrative akin to DeFi Summer with a main upward wave level will emerge. From the current small narrative pattern, AI infrastructure is the most likely to achieve a breakthrough first.
If the underlying technologies such as MCP protocol, A2A communication standard, distributed computing, inference, and data networks can be organically integrated, there is indeed potential to build a super narrative similar to 'AI Summer'.
