Introduction
Bitcoin (BTC) enters June 2025 trading around the $105,000 level after a volatile end to May. In late May, BTC reached a new all-time high near $111,980, then retraced amid profit-taking and geopolitical concerns. Despite a 5.5% pullback from about $109,000 to $103,200 last week, Bitcoin still closed May with roughly an 11% monthly gain, extending April’s 14% rise. This two-month uptrend suggests the broader bullish market structure remains intact, but short-term technical signals now urge caution. This analysis will examine Bitcoin’s price action on multiple timeframes (15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, daily), apply classic technical indicators (support/resistance, candlestick patterns, EMA-50, EMA-200, RSI, volume), explore “smart money” concepts (liquidity, order blocks, imbalances, Wyckoff phases, stop hunts), and incorporate institutional insights. We’ll highlight key price levels – where trends might reverse or continue – and identify buy/sell interest zones, focusing on the immediate 1-2 day outlook and a brief week-ahead forecast.
Technical Analysis: Multi-Timeframe Overview
Bitcoin’s price action (daily chart as of June 2, 2025) shows a strong uptrend from April into May, followed by a pullback from the ~$112K peak. Key moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels indicate critical support/resistance zones, as discussed below.
On the daily (D1) timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a rising channel extending from early April. The rally accelerated in May, culminating in a record high around $111.9K before a pullback. This pullback brought the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) down from overbought levels into the mid-50s, indicating fading but not eliminated bullish momentum. Notably, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA-50) crossed above the 200-day EMA (EMA-200) in May – a classic “golden cross” bullish signal. Price continues to trade above the longer-term 200-day EMA (a sign of an overall uptrend), but the distance has narrowed. Recent daily candlesticks show wicks (shadows) on both sides, reflecting indecision as bulls and bears battle around the $105K-$107K zone. Trading volume spiked during last week’s sell-off as some investors took profits at a three-month high rate, and has since moderated, suggesting the market is trying to find equilibrium after that volatility.
On the 4-hour (H4) chart, the short-term trend shifted cautiously bearish after the late-May drop. A bearish crossover developed, as the 20 EMA crossed below the 50 and 100 EMA on the 4H timeframe following the sharp slide. In fact, $105,800 has emerged as a pivotal resistance, coinciding with the 4H 100 EMAand the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent downswing. This confluent barrier (often termed the “golden ratio”) capped multiple rebound attempts. Bulls did manage to reclaim the 4H 20 EMA(~$105.3K), but the 50 EMA near $106,000 remains the next hurdle to restart a sustained rally. Meanwhile, 4H RSI hovers around 50, reflecting neutral momentum. The market structure on H4 shows lower highs formed at $112K and then ~$109K, with a recent low at $103.2K – indicating a short-term downtrend within the larger uptrend. Encouragingly, price bounced off the $103,200 level over the weekend, suggesting buyers defended that support (which aligns with roughly a 78.6% retracement of the late-May rally). If the H4 structure can form a higher low above $103K and break above $107K, it would signal a bullish reversal, otherwise, the risk remains for retesting lower supports.
Zooming into the 1-hour (H1) and 15-minute (M15) charts, we observe Bitcoin in a tight range intraday, consolidating after the weekend rebound. On the hourly chart, price action has been oscillating roughly between $104.5K and $106K in the past sessions, forming a potential bullish flag or rectangle pattern of consolidation. The 50-hour EMA and 200-hour EMA on H1 are flattening out, a sign that the sharp downward momentum has paused. In fact, the 1H 50 EMA is attempting to curl upward, and a bullish crossover with the 200 EMA on H1 may occur if price holds above ~$105K, which would be an early signal of short-term trend reversal. The M15 chart shows a sequence of higher lows since the $104.7K pivot low early Monday. However, overhead supply around $105.8K-$106K (the same resistance noted on higher timeframes) has led to quick stop-and-reverse moves – indicating that day traders are taking profit near that zone. Candlestick patterns on M15/H1 demonstrate this indecision: for example, repeated long upper wicks around $105.8K reflect sellers stepping in at that resistance, while hammer-like candles near $104.8K-$105K show buyers absorbing dips. Volume on the 15-min chart has tapered during consolidation, which is normal after a large move; a volume increase on a break of the range (above $106K or below $104.5K) would likely signal the next short-term direction.
Smart Money and Liquidity Considerations
From a “Smart Money” perspective – analyzing how larger institutional players and liquidity dynamics might be influencing Bitcoin – several observations emerge. First, the liquidity landscape suggests that major round numbers are key battlegrounds. The $100,000 level stands out as a psychologically important support with a high concentration of stop-loss orders just below it. Such liquidity pools can attract “stop hunts,” where price wicks briefly below support to trigger stops and absorb liquidity before reversing. A potential scenario could be a Wyckoff-style spring: a quick dip under $100K (into the high-$90Ks) that shakes out weak longs and triggers panic selling, only for Smart Money to quietly accumulate those cheap coins and drive a reversal. In fact, earlier this year Bitcoin’s price action closely followed a Wyckoff re-accumulation pattern. Analysts noted that after a Spring phase around $85,950 in February, BTC entered a Test phase, needing a successful retest and a breakout above the range high (~$106-107K) to confirm a new uptrend. Bitcoin did break above $106,700 and even $109K in April/May, marking a Sign of Strength in Wyckoff terms. The current consolidation under ~$107K could be interpreted as a Last Point of Support (LPS) or a backup in that re-accumulation schema, so long as prices remain above key support (e.g. the mid-$90Ks). In other words, distribution does not yet appear confirmed; instead, institutional buyers may be positioning on dips, unless critical levels give way.
Order blocks – areas of previously high buying or selling interest – are evident on the chart. One notable demand zone (bullish order block) is around $100K to $103K, which corresponds to May’s mid-level consolidation and the origin of the late-May rally. The strong bounce from $103.2K suggests that orders were stacked there, absorbing the sell-off. If Bitcoin revisits that zone, one would expect significant buying interest again, unless market conditions deteriorate sharply. On the upside, a supply zone (bearish order block) exists near the $109K-$112K region (the recent ATH zone). We saw aggressive selling pressure there during the ATH rejection, indicating that large holders may have taken profit or even opened short positions in that range. Breaking above $112K would likely force those sellers to cover (fueling further upside), but until then, that zone is a liquidity pocket where any rallies might meet overhead supply. We should also consider imbalances on the chart: the rapid run-up from ~$100K to $112K in May left relatively few traded volumes in between, meaning the price might retest the middle of that range (around ~$106K-$108K) multiple times to “fill in” the order book. So far, this seems to be happening as Bitcoin churns between support and resistance, allowing large players to execute sizable orders without moving the price too drastically.
Another smart money concept is the idea of stop-loss clustering and liquidity absorption. As mentioned, many traders will have stops below obvious support levels like $100K or $95K. Savvy market makers are aware of this and could drive price into those zones to trigger a liquidity event. One clue of such activity is when a sharp move into a support is quickly reversed and leaves a long lower wick – indicating absorption of selling by large limit orders. Traders should watch for this kind of price action if BTC dips to $100K or $95K: a quick recovery from a transient break would hint that smart money is accumulating, whereas a high-volume break below $95K with no bounce could signal a genuine distribution and deeper correction. In summary, current price action appears consistent with re-accumulation rather than distribution, as long as key liquidity levels ($100K, $95K) hold. A deliberate stop-run below $100K could occur, but it might ultimately serve to recharge bullish momentum if it’s swiftly bought up.
Institutional Insights and Market Sentiment
Market sentiment in early June is mixed, as technical bullishness is being tested by macro and institutional factors. On the one hand, institutional and corporate demand for Bitcoin remains robust, which underpins the bull case. In late May, several high-profile buyers stepped in: MicroStrategy (now rebranded as “Strategy”) added 4,020 BTC ( ~$427 million worth ) to its holdings, bringing its total to a staggering 580,250 BTC. Similarly, GameStop – a major U.S. retailer – made its first Bitcoin purchase of 4,710 BTC after raising funds via a convertible note. And on June 2, Japan’s investment firm Metaplanet announced the purchase of 1,088 BTC, raising its treasury to 8,888 BTC. These actions by big players signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, and such accumulation can provide a floor of demand on any significant dips. In fact, Bitcoin’s corporate and institutional interest has been growing – as of late May, the number of companies holding BTC was up 25% since April – reinforcing the idea that “smart money” is steadily flowing into crypto.
On the other hand, short-term sentiment has soured slightly due to geopolitical and seasonal factors. Reports on June 2 highlighted an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which drove investors toward safe-haven assets (like gold) and away from risk assets. This “risk-off” move contributed to Bitcoin’s early week decline below $105K. Additionally, for the first time since mid-April, Bitcoin spot ETF funds saw a net weekly outflow (approximately $157 million) as some investors pulled back. While that outflow is relatively small (and followed by many weeks of inflows), it marks a pause in the strong institutional bid that had been supporting BTC’s rally. Seasonality also warrants caution: historically, June has been one of Bitcoin’s weaker months, averaging around a –0.3% return. After an 11% surge in May, some consolidation or even a mild pullback in June would not be surprising. Indeed, on-chain data confirms that profit-taking spiked in late May – the Network Profit/Loss metric hit its highest level since February – indicating many holders sold at a profit into the rally, which increases short-term selling pressure.
Institutional analysts are keeping a close eye on critical levels. Bitfinex’s market report in early May emphasized $95,000 as a must-hold support to maintain the bullish structure. This level represented the lower boundary of a multi-month range (from late 2024 to Feb 2025) and a pivot that could determine whether Bitcoin continues to “structurally” shift bullish or faces a deeper correction. Notably, Bitcoin did hold above $95K through May and then broke out to new highs, validating that bullish pivot. However, if BTC were to fall below $95K again, it could signal that the market is entering a larger correction phase. For now, that scenario is distant – BTC is ~$105K – but it remains a contingency to watch, especially if macro conditions worsen. In summary, the fundamental and sentiment backdrop suggests long-term optimism (with ongoing institutional accumulation and supportive network fundamentals), but near-term caution due to profit-taking and external risks. Traders on Binance and other platforms should be aware of these cross-currents: bullish institutional flows can help buoy BTC on dips, but broad risk-off sentiment or loss of key support could swiftly amplify downside in the short run.
Key Levels and Zones of Interest
Considering the technical and “smart money” factors above, here are the key price levels to watch in the immediate term, along with zones where buying or selling interest is likely concentrated:
$111,000 – $112,000 (All-Time High Resistance): This is the recent peak zone (Bitcoin’s ATH around $111.98K). Expect heavy sell orders and profit-taking near this region. A daily close above $112K would mark a major breakout, potentially igniting momentum toward higher targets (the next psychological level could be $120,000). Until then, this zone is a sell-high area for short-term traders and a critical resistance for bulls to conquer eventually.
$107,000 – $109,000 (Near-Term Resistance Zone): Around $106K-$107K lies a cluster of resistances: the 4H 50-EMA ($106K) and 100-EMA ($105.8K), the 0.618 Fib retracement of the recent drop (~$105.8K), and a key daily level $106,406 which was a support-turned-resistance. This zone also includes the round figure $107K, which was last week’s lower high. Bulls need to push above $107Kto confirm a short-term trend reversal A break here could open the path to $110K+. Short-term traders may look to sell rallies into this area until a clear breakout occurs.
$104,000 – $105,000 (Intraday Pivot Range): This band is basically where $BTC is oscillating now. It held as support early this week (BTC rebounded from ~$104.7K) and represents the midpoint of the current consolidation. Day traders on M15/H1 charts are watching $105K as a pivot – staying above it keeps a bullish bias for another run at $107K, whereas falling below $104K could accelerate a dip to next supports. There might be minor liquidity grabs here, but it’s mainly a short-term no-man’s land; decisive moves will likely come either above $106K or below $104K.
$100,000 – $103,000 (Major Support / Demand Zone): $100K is a huge psychological level and likely a strong buy zone for both retail and institutional players. Just above it, around $102K-$103K, we have the recent swing low ($103.2K) and the area of an order block from which Bitcoin bounced over the weekend. Initial buy orders are expected to cluster in this zone. However, because so many stops reside below $100K, a dip into the high-$90Ks (e.g., $98K, $99K) could happen intra-day – such a move might quickly reverse if it’s a stop hunt. Traders may consider this zone for long entries if there are signs of stabilization (for example, a 15-min or hourly reversal candlestick pattern like a hammer or double bottom accompanied by volume spike). A convincing break below $100K (with high volume and no quick bounce) would be a bearish development, potentially flipping this zone into resistance.
$95,000 (Critical Support Floor): As highlighted by institutional analysis, ~$95K is the line in the sand for the medium-term bullish trend. It was the base of the Q1 consolidation range and represents a high-volume node in market structure. Strong hands are expected to defend this level if reached. It’s an attractive accumulation zone for long-term investors (value buyers may layer bids from $95K down to low-$90Ks). Should $95K fail on a daily closing basis, it would signal a deeper correction is underway. Below $95K, the next supports might be around $90K and $85K (the latter being the area of the Wyckoff “spring” low in Feb). But for the scope of a one-week outlook, $95K is the lowest key level that we anticipate could come into play barring an extreme sell-off.
Short-Term Outlook (Next 1-2 Days)
In the immediate term (the next 24-48 hours), Bitcoin’s ($BTC ) price is poised at an inflection point. The base case scenario is continued consolidation between support in the low $100Ks and resistance in the mid $100Ks, as the market digests recent gains and news. However, volatility could pick up quickly if either side of this range breaks. Bullish case: If buyers manage to push BTC above the $106K-$107K resistance pocket and hold it there (especially with a 4H or daily close), we could see momentum carry the price toward the $110K level within a day or two. A breakout above $107K would likely trigger short-covering and draw in trend-following buyers, potentially yielding a swift move to test $110K and the underside of the ATH region. Traders should watch for increasing volume and a rising RSI on the hourly chart to confirm a breakout.
On the bearish side, if Bitcoin cannot clear ~$106K and starts rolling over, the first sign will be a loss of the $104K-$105K intraday support. In that case, expect a retest of last week’s low around $103.2K fairly quickly A break below $103K would intensify downside pressure – stops getting hit could accelerate the drop toward $100K. Given the current slight bearish tilt on the H4 chart (with the death cross EMAs and MACD lingering bearish), a move to $100K is a real possibility if bulls don’t reclaim ground soon. Still, as discussed, the $100K level should attract buyers on the first test. Thus, even in a bearish scenario, we might see a quick dip to $98K-$100K followed by a bounce. Aggressive short-term traders might even target a liquidity grab setup – for example, going long near $100K if a cascade of stop-loss selling pushes price there, with tight risk management.
Overall, for the next couple of days, caution is warranted. The RSI on the daily is pointing downward toward neutral, and the daily MACD has produced a bearish crossover indicating the recent uptrend’s momentum is cooling. These suggest that without a new bullish catalyst, BTC could drift lower or chop sideways. Yet, the higher timeframe uptrend and strong support levels imply any dips could be short-lived. Traders may consider range-bound strategies in the very short term – e.g., scalping between support and resistance – but should be ready to flip bias if a breakout or breakdown occurs.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
Looking beyond a couple of days into the next week (the first week of June 2025), the path Bitcoin takes will likely be determined by its resolution of the current consolidation.
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout – If BTC punches through the ~$107K resistance and regains, say, the $110K handle in the coming days, it would reaffirm the uptrend. In that event, bullish momentum could build toward retesting the all-time high (~$112K)quickly, and potentially exceeding it. A weekly close above the previous high would be a powerful technical statement, possibly opening the door to the mid-$110Ks or even $120K (which was cited as an upside target if the rally continued above the channel in May). We might see increased FOMO (fear of missing out) and fresh buying if new highs are achieved, especially given the backdrop of institutional accumulation. Additionally, any easing of macro fears – e.g., a de-escalation in Eastern Europe or positive regulatory news – could strengthen the bullish scenario.
Scenario 2: Continued Consolidation or Mild Pullback – Should Bitcoin remain range-bound under $110K for a few more days, it wouldn’t be unusual for early June. As noted, June historically isn’t a very strong month, so BTC might spend this week digesting prior gains. In this scenario, we might see choppy trading between say $100K and $110K. One possibility is a Wyckoff-style “backup”: after the spring and breakout phases, the price could retest the breakout level (around $100K-$105K) one more time in a low-volume pullback before launching higher. Such a retest could even mean a dip slightly below $100K (to scare late buyers) and then a recovery. As long as higher timeframe support holds (especially $95K), the bullish structure for June remains viable.
Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown – This appears less likely unless external factors worsen, but cannot be ruled out. If Bitcoin loses $100K support decisively and closes the week below that level, it would dent the prevailing uptrend. In that case, focus would shift to $95K and potentially lower support around $90K-$92K (a zone of previous consolidation and also near the 50-week EMA around ~$76K, though $76K is likely beyond a one-week move). A break under $95K might indicate a larger distribution phase is unfolding, perhaps targeting a deeper correction of the 2025 rally. This is not the base expectation but serves as a risk scenario – traders should have contingency plans (like stop-losses or hedges) in case of a sudden bearish acceleration.
Bottom line: The coming week will set the tone for whether Bitcoin continues its strong 2025 ascent or pauses for a deeper reset. Key signs to watch include: a daily close above $107K (bullish), a daily close below $100K (bearish), and volume/open interest changes which might hint at institutional positioning. Given current data, a reasonable expectation is that BTC will find support on dips and could be gearing up for another leg higher later in June, provided it navigates the current liquidity tests. Both experienced traders and Binance users should stay vigilant but optimistic – Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend is intact, and short-term volatility can present opportunities to accumulate or trade around clear levels. As always, employ prudent risk management, as the crypto market can surprise even in a generally bullish climate.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s technical picture as of June 2, 2025, is one of short-term uncertainty within a medium-term uptrend. Multi-timeframe analysis shows a robust rally cooling off into a consolidation, with $106K-$107Kacting as a near-term ceiling and $100K-$103K as an important floor. Indicators (like RSI and moving averages) point to waning bullish momentum in the immediate term, while smart money concepts suggest that big players may actually be eyeing this dip as an opportunity – especially if any stop-run to sub-$100K levels occurs. Institutional activity provides a positive undercurrent (e.g. companies adding $BTC to treasuries, despite some profit-taking by shorter-term holders), yet macro factors inject caution. For traders on Binance and elsewhere, the strategy could be to watch these well-defined levels and not chase trades in the middle of the range. In the next day or two, confirmation of direction (a break of $107K resistance or a drop to $100K support) will likely dictate whether we get a rally continuation or a deeper pullback this week. By preparing for both scenarios – setting alerts, managing stop orders, and being aware of key signals – market participants can navigate Bitcoin’s short-term turbulence while positioning for its longer-term strength. Happy trading and stay safe!
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoForecast #TechnicalAnalysis #BinanceSquare