If Bitcoin doesn't rise tonight, U.S. Treasuries will be the first to die.
In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is the entire U.S. Treasury market.
Tonight, the U.S. announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear indication of an interest rate cut and a catalyst for the capital markets to restart their risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would have been enough to send tech stocks soaring, Bitcoin racing, and gold skyrocketing, with capital flocking away from the bond market and into high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only made a slight jump, and the market remains skeptical.
This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement, nor is it a consolidation; it is a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:
> Even if the Federal Reserve releases signals of easing, the capital markets may no longer be receptive.
This means that risk appetite has not yet returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines watching. If Bitcoin does not rise and tech stocks do not lead, it represents a more serious problem:
Funds have nowhere to go.
If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise amidst easing inflation, what will happen next?
The answer is:
> U.S. Treasuries will be the first to be sacrificed, becoming victims of a vacuum of confidence.
Yields will continue to rise uncontrollably because no one wants to take on a scenario that "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot afford to take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in U.S. Treasuries are buried in Bitcoin's hesitation tonight.
So, if Bitcoin does not rise tonight, it will not only be a missed opportunity in price but also a cold judgment on the risk-bearing capacity of the entire capital market. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.
This is a war beyond candlestick patterns; a single bullish candle may save not just the longs but also U.S. Treasuries.
