劍走偏鋒

If Bitcoin doesn't rise tonight, U.S. Treasuries will be the first to die.

In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is the entire U.S. Treasury market.

Tonight, the U.S. announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear indication of an interest rate cut and a catalyst for the capital markets to restart their risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would have been enough to send tech stocks soaring, Bitcoin racing, and gold skyrocketing, with capital flocking away from the bond market and into high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only made a slight jump, and the market remains skeptical.

This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement, nor is it a consolidation; it is a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:

> Even if the Federal Reserve releases signals of easing, the capital markets may no longer be receptive.

This means that risk appetite has not yet returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines watching. If Bitcoin does not rise and tech stocks do not lead, it represents a more serious problem:

Funds have nowhere to go.

If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise amidst easing inflation, what will happen next?

The answer is:

> U.S. Treasuries will be the first to be sacrificed, becoming victims of a vacuum of confidence.

Yields will continue to rise uncontrollably because no one wants to take on a scenario that "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot afford to take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in U.S. Treasuries are buried in Bitcoin's hesitation tonight.

So, if Bitcoin does not rise tonight, it will not only be a missed opportunity in price but also a cold judgment on the risk-bearing capacity of the entire capital market. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.

This is a war beyond candlestick patterns; a single bullish candle may save not just the longs but also U.S. Treasuries.

#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #美國霸權衰退

#BTC ignition

Every time I see the main forces washing the plates, there is an inexplicable excitement in my heart.
It's not because I like the decline, but that sense of 'calm before the storm',
like seeing a hunter lay out a trap, seeing the sun hidden behind the clouds,
watching a play about to begin.

Most people in the market panic and flee,
while I prefer to stand on the crest of the wave,
quietly waiting for that turning point.

Perhaps I am not looking at the market,
I am seeing through lies, deciphering routines,
searching for that thread of truth in the gray area.

Washing the plates is no longer fear,
but a delicate art,
it is a psychological game between the main forces and the masses.
And I would rather be the one who sits and watches the clouds rise.

#PCE #交易心理學 #市場觀察 #獵人視角 #金融哲學

#PCE数据来袭

Similar wash trading in history has repeatedly occurred on the eve of PCE data releases, resulting in highly representative technical crashes and strong reversal trends:

On June 29, 2023, Bitcoin dropped from $31,200 to $29,500, a decline of about 5.4%. After the PCE data was released favorably, it rebounded to $31,800 the same day, an increase of 7.8%.

On December 22, 2023, the price fell from $44,300 to $41,700, a decline of about 5.9%. The PCE data coming in below expectations boosted market risk appetite, and BTC rebounded to $44,800, an increase of about 7.4%.

On March 29, 2024, Bitcoin plummeted from $71,800 to $67,300, a drop of 6.3%. After the data was released that day, the price recovered to $72,000, an increase of about 7%, completing an intraday reversal.

On May 29, 2025, Bitcoin once again exhibited an almost identical technical structure, falling from a high of $111,968 to a low of $105,600, a retracement of 5.7%, very close to the historical extremes of wash trading.

#極限洗盤