劍走偏鋒
2026年之前長期看多比特幣，但習慣用極高槓桿短打切入，喜歡在極限洗盤時加碼，精準預判主力動向，享受「圍棋式博弈」思維，有 Jesse Livermore 式的交易哲學觀照，對爆倉與倖存者遊戲本質有深刻洞察，常發文融合詩意與技術，例如-洗盤是一種弱肉強食。
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《Listening to Trains, Guessing the Script》
Late at night, the market is as calm as still water, the K-line like a track, dragging along silent emotions. I am not watching prices; I am listening to the sound of trains.
A sudden brake, is it the last roar of the bears? Or a preparatory move before a larger acceleration?
Bitcoin these days is like a train in the fog: no whistle, no acceleration, just pushing forward silently. On the surface, it seems to be consolidating, but each compartment hides signals:
ETF funds are flowing out, yet there is no crash; who is picking it up?
Trump's deliberate silence, is it building momentum? Or creating a narrative vacuum?
The weak technical fluctuations, is it completely bearish? Or a misdirection in the plot?
I am not analyzing data; I am piecing together a script. The market narrative is not daily news headlines, but who controls the discourse of the next turning point.
Sometimes, the real main force is not the one pushing up the market, but the one who decides "when not to push."
Trump's silence these days may not be about giving up, but rather waiting until all retail investors have exited before he can say: "This is the reversal I brought."
I sit at the train station, listening to the trains pass by, not guessing the destination, just listening to the rhythm. Because those who understand rhythm know:
> At which station it’s time to board.
$BTC #BTC #猜火車
Late at night, the market is as calm as still water, the K-line like a track, dragging along silent emotions. I am not watching prices; I am listening to the sound of trains.
A sudden brake, is it the last roar of the bears? Or a preparatory move before a larger acceleration?
Bitcoin these days is like a train in the fog: no whistle, no acceleration, just pushing forward silently. On the surface, it seems to be consolidating, but each compartment hides signals:
ETF funds are flowing out, yet there is no crash; who is picking it up?
Trump's deliberate silence, is it building momentum? Or creating a narrative vacuum?
The weak technical fluctuations, is it completely bearish? Or a misdirection in the plot?
I am not analyzing data; I am piecing together a script. The market narrative is not daily news headlines, but who controls the discourse of the next turning point.
Sometimes, the real main force is not the one pushing up the market, but the one who decides "when not to push."
Trump's silence these days may not be about giving up, but rather waiting until all retail investors have exited before he can say: "This is the reversal I brought."
I sit at the train station, listening to the trains pass by, not guessing the destination, just listening to the rhythm. Because those who understand rhythm know:
> At which station it’s time to board.
$BTC #BTC #猜火車
See original
《After Five Consecutive Days of Decline, Bitcoin Awaits Someone to Pull the Trigger》
On May 31, 2025, Bitcoin's daily chart recorded five consecutive negative candles, with the price dipping to $103,036. Despite positive U.S. inflation data and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, the downward trend could not be halted.
The focus of the market is no longer on data, but on narrative.
And the key narrative operator—Trump—has chosen silence this time.
🟥 Five consecutive negative candles are not panic, but a lack of answers
From a technical perspective, five consecutive daily candlesticks closing in the red have broken all mid-term moving average supports since April. The MACD continues to emit red bars, and the RSI is probing 30, showing a short-term pattern of "oversold but unable to rebound."
This is not a case of the market lacking funds, but rather the market not knowing whom to trust.
🧱 Trump's silence leaves Bitcoin without a faith anchor
In this market driven by news and capital, Bitcoin's bulls have never relied solely on candlesticks but on "faith narratives."
At the end of 2024, Trump shouted, "Miners should return to America," directly driving BTC's daily increase of over 6%.
But this time, when the PCE was below expectations and risk assets should have rebounded, he instead focused on Chinese tariffs and blamed the Federal Reserve, without mentioning Bitcoin again.
> The main players are not afraid to buy, but no one is igniting the fire.
⏳ Today is a watershed moment
If today's candlestick continues to close in the red, Bitcoin will set one of the longest consecutive negative records since 2023.
This is not only a technical breakdown but will further compress the bulls' confidence, allowing bears to probe further down to $102,000 or even the psychological barrier of $98,000.
However, if a volume-increasing positive candlestick appears today and recovers MA28 (104,340), this candlestick will become the key for "main force cleaning up positions + surprise counterattack."
📌 Conclusion:
> The market does not lack main players, but lacks a banner.
If Trump again expresses his stance on Bitcoin, miners, and free currency, everything could reverse.
And for now, the market can only quietly await that gunshot sound.
$BTC #BTC #TRUMP #Mining
On May 31, 2025, Bitcoin's daily chart recorded five consecutive negative candles, with the price dipping to $103,036. Despite positive U.S. inflation data and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, the downward trend could not be halted.
The focus of the market is no longer on data, but on narrative.
And the key narrative operator—Trump—has chosen silence this time.
🟥 Five consecutive negative candles are not panic, but a lack of answers
From a technical perspective, five consecutive daily candlesticks closing in the red have broken all mid-term moving average supports since April. The MACD continues to emit red bars, and the RSI is probing 30, showing a short-term pattern of "oversold but unable to rebound."
This is not a case of the market lacking funds, but rather the market not knowing whom to trust.
🧱 Trump's silence leaves Bitcoin without a faith anchor
In this market driven by news and capital, Bitcoin's bulls have never relied solely on candlesticks but on "faith narratives."
At the end of 2024, Trump shouted, "Miners should return to America," directly driving BTC's daily increase of over 6%.
But this time, when the PCE was below expectations and risk assets should have rebounded, he instead focused on Chinese tariffs and blamed the Federal Reserve, without mentioning Bitcoin again.
> The main players are not afraid to buy, but no one is igniting the fire.
⏳ Today is a watershed moment
If today's candlestick continues to close in the red, Bitcoin will set one of the longest consecutive negative records since 2023.
This is not only a technical breakdown but will further compress the bulls' confidence, allowing bears to probe further down to $102,000 or even the psychological barrier of $98,000.
However, if a volume-increasing positive candlestick appears today and recovers MA28 (104,340), this candlestick will become the key for "main force cleaning up positions + surprise counterattack."
📌 Conclusion:
> The market does not lack main players, but lacks a banner.
If Trump again expresses his stance on Bitcoin, miners, and free currency, everything could reverse.
And for now, the market can only quietly await that gunshot sound.
$BTC #BTC #TRUMP #Mining
See original
Didn’t notice that old man Trump posted again yesterday...
Trump wants Bitcoin to rise,
but he just wants the explosion of Bitcoin to become his achievement, not a result of the data.
He’s not not lighting the fire,
but rather waiting for the moment "lit by his own hands."
This was the bullish script the market had been waiting for:
Inflation cooling down, pressure on the Federal Reserve easing, Bitcoin was expected to break through. Trump suddenly posted:
Threatening to re-impose taxes on China, harshly criticizing the Federal Reserve for destroying the economy.
This post changed everything...
Trump wants Bitcoin to rise,
but he just wants the explosion of Bitcoin to become his achievement, not a result of the data.
He’s not not lighting the fire,
but rather waiting for the moment "lit by his own hands."
This was the bullish script the market had been waiting for:
Inflation cooling down, pressure on the Federal Reserve easing, Bitcoin was expected to break through. Trump suddenly posted:
Threatening to re-impose taxes on China, harshly criticizing the Federal Reserve for destroying the economy.
This post changed everything...
If Bitcoin does not rise again, US bonds will die first.
In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is tied the entire US treasury bond market.
Tonight, the US announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear signal for interest rate cuts and a catalyst for the capital market to restart its risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would be enough to make tech stocks soar, Bitcoin run wild, and gold skyrocket, with funds flocking away from the bond market and towards high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only jumped lightly, while the market remains skeptical.
This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement or a consolidation, but rather a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:
> Even if the Federal Reserve releases easing signals, the capital market may no longer buy it.
This means that risk appetite has still not returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines observing. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise and tech stocks don’t lead, it represents a more serious problem:
Funds have nowhere to go.
If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise in the current easing of inflation, then what will happen next?
The answer is:
> US treasuries will be the first to bear the brunt, becoming a victim of the confidence vacuum.
Yields will rise uncontrollably because no one is willing to take on a scenario where "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in US treasuries are buried in Bitcoin’s hesitation tonight.
So, if Bitcoin does not rise again, it is not just a missed opportunity in price, but a cold judgment on the entire capital market's risk tolerance. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.
This is a war beyond candlestick charts; a single bullish candlestick may save not only the longs but also US treasuries.
#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #BTC
In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is tied the entire US treasury bond market.
Tonight, the US announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear signal for interest rate cuts and a catalyst for the capital market to restart its risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would be enough to make tech stocks soar, Bitcoin run wild, and gold skyrocket, with funds flocking away from the bond market and towards high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only jumped lightly, while the market remains skeptical.
This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement or a consolidation, but rather a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:
> Even if the Federal Reserve releases easing signals, the capital market may no longer buy it.
This means that risk appetite has still not returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines observing. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise and tech stocks don’t lead, it represents a more serious problem:
Funds have nowhere to go.
If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise in the current easing of inflation, then what will happen next?
The answer is:
> US treasuries will be the first to bear the brunt, becoming a victim of the confidence vacuum.
Yields will rise uncontrollably because no one is willing to take on a scenario where "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in US treasuries are buried in Bitcoin’s hesitation tonight.
So, if Bitcoin does not rise again, it is not just a missed opportunity in price, but a cold judgment on the entire capital market's risk tolerance. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.
This is a war beyond candlestick charts; a single bullish candlestick may save not only the longs but also US treasuries.
#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #BTC
See original
If Bitcoin does not rise again, US bonds will die first.
In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is tied the entire US treasury bond market.
Tonight, the US announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear signal for interest rate cuts and a catalyst for the capital market to restart its risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would be enough to make tech stocks soar, Bitcoin run wild, and gold skyrocket, with funds flocking away from the bond market and towards high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only jumped lightly, while the market remains skeptical.
This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement or a consolidation, but rather a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:
> Even if the Federal Reserve releases easing signals, the capital market may no longer buy it.
This means that risk appetite has still not returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines observing. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise and tech stocks don’t lead, it represents a more serious problem:
Funds have nowhere to go.
If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise in the current easing of inflation, then what will happen next?
The answer is:
> US treasuries will be the first to bear the brunt, becoming a victim of the confidence vacuum.
Yields will rise uncontrollably because no one is willing to take on a scenario where "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in US treasuries are buried in Bitcoin’s hesitation tonight.
So, if Bitcoin does not rise again, it is not just a missed opportunity in price, but a cold judgment on the entire capital market's risk tolerance. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.
This is a war beyond candlestick charts; a single bullish candlestick may save not only the longs but also US treasuries.
#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #BTC
In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is tied the entire US treasury bond market.
Tonight, the US announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear signal for interest rate cuts and a catalyst for the capital market to restart its risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would be enough to make tech stocks soar, Bitcoin run wild, and gold skyrocket, with funds flocking away from the bond market and towards high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only jumped lightly, while the market remains skeptical.
This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement or a consolidation, but rather a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:
> Even if the Federal Reserve releases easing signals, the capital market may no longer buy it.
This means that risk appetite has still not returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines observing. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise and tech stocks don’t lead, it represents a more serious problem:
Funds have nowhere to go.
If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise in the current easing of inflation, then what will happen next?
The answer is:
> US treasuries will be the first to bear the brunt, becoming a victim of the confidence vacuum.
Yields will rise uncontrollably because no one is willing to take on a scenario where "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in US treasuries are buried in Bitcoin’s hesitation tonight.
So, if Bitcoin does not rise again, it is not just a missed opportunity in price, but a cold judgment on the entire capital market's risk tolerance. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.
This is a war beyond candlestick charts; a single bullish candlestick may save not only the longs but also US treasuries.
#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #BTC
See original
Every time I see the main forces washing the plates, there is an inexplicable excitement in my heart.
It's not because I like the decline, but that sense of 'calm before the storm',
like seeing a hunter lay out a trap, seeing the sun hidden behind the clouds,
watching a play about to begin.
Most people in the market panic and flee,
while I prefer to stand on the crest of the wave,
quietly waiting for that turning point.
Perhaps I am not looking at the market,
I am seeing through lies, deciphering routines,
searching for that thread of truth in the gray area.
Washing the plates is no longer fear,
but a delicate art,
it is a psychological game between the main forces and the masses.
And I would rather be the one who sits and watches the clouds rise.
#PCE #交易心理學 #市場觀察 #獵人視角 #金融哲學
It's not because I like the decline, but that sense of 'calm before the storm',
like seeing a hunter lay out a trap, seeing the sun hidden behind the clouds,
watching a play about to begin.
Most people in the market panic and flee,
while I prefer to stand on the crest of the wave,
quietly waiting for that turning point.
Perhaps I am not looking at the market,
I am seeing through lies, deciphering routines,
searching for that thread of truth in the gray area.
Washing the plates is no longer fear,
but a delicate art,
it is a psychological game between the main forces and the masses.
And I would rather be the one who sits and watches the clouds rise.
#PCE #交易心理學 #市場觀察 #獵人視角 #金融哲學
See original
#PCE数据来袭
Similar wash trading in history has repeatedly occurred on the eve of PCE data releases, resulting in highly representative technical crashes and strong reversal trends:
On June 29, 2023, Bitcoin dropped from $31,200 to $29,500, a decline of about 5.4%. After the PCE data was released favorably, it rebounded to $31,800 the same day, an increase of 7.8%.
On December 22, 2023, the price fell from $44,300 to $41,700, a decline of about 5.9%. The PCE data coming in below expectations boosted market risk appetite, and BTC rebounded to $44,800, an increase of about 7.4%.
On March 29, 2024, Bitcoin plummeted from $71,800 to $67,300, a drop of 6.3%. After the data was released that day, the price recovered to $72,000, an increase of about 7%, completing an intraday reversal.
On May 29, 2025, Bitcoin once again exhibited an almost identical technical structure, falling from a high of $111,968 to a low of $105,600, a retracement of 5.7%, very close to the historical extremes of wash trading.
#極限洗盤
Similar wash trading in history has repeatedly occurred on the eve of PCE data releases, resulting in highly representative technical crashes and strong reversal trends:
On June 29, 2023, Bitcoin dropped from $31,200 to $29,500, a decline of about 5.4%. After the PCE data was released favorably, it rebounded to $31,800 the same day, an increase of 7.8%.
On December 22, 2023, the price fell from $44,300 to $41,700, a decline of about 5.9%. The PCE data coming in below expectations boosted market risk appetite, and BTC rebounded to $44,800, an increase of about 7.4%.
On March 29, 2024, Bitcoin plummeted from $71,800 to $67,300, a drop of 6.3%. After the data was released that day, the price recovered to $72,000, an increase of about 7%, completing an intraday reversal.
On May 29, 2025, Bitcoin once again exhibited an almost identical technical structure, falling from a high of $111,968 to a low of $105,600, a retracement of 5.7%, very close to the historical extremes of wash trading.
#極限洗盤
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