資金風險偏好

If Bitcoin does not rise again, US bonds will die first.

In the golden moment after the inflation data is released, Bitcoin is standing on a very thin tightrope. On the other end of this tightrope is tied the entire US treasury bond market.

Tonight, the US announced that the April PCE data was below expectations, which should have been a clear signal for interest rate cuts and a catalyst for the capital market to restart its risk appetite. Such data, in any past financial cycle, would be enough to make tech stocks soar, Bitcoin run wild, and gold skyrocket, with funds flocking away from the bond market and towards high-yield assets. But so far, Bitcoin has only jumped lightly, while the market remains skeptical.

This lack of increase is not a technical sideways movement or a consolidation, but rather a hesitation of attitude. It reveals a disturbing signal:

> Even if the Federal Reserve releases easing signals, the capital market may no longer buy it.

This means that risk appetite has still not returned, and global funds are still standing on the sidelines observing. If Bitcoin doesn’t rise and tech stocks don’t lead, it represents a more serious problem:

Funds have nowhere to go.

If even Bitcoin, the most leveraged symbol of risk appetite, is unwilling to rise in the current easing of inflation, then what will happen next?

The answer is:

> US treasuries will be the first to bear the brunt, becoming a victim of the confidence vacuum.

Yields will rise uncontrollably because no one is willing to take on a scenario where "no one believes in a soft landing and cannot take risks." The Federal Reserve will find it harder to cut interest rates, and the Treasury will find it harder to issue bonds; the seeds of a liquidity crisis in US treasuries are buried in Bitcoin’s hesitation tonight.

So, if Bitcoin does not rise again, it is not just a missed opportunity in price, but a cold judgment on the entire capital market's risk tolerance. Whether Wall Street can regain confidence in the future depends on whether Bitcoin will take off from here.

This is a war beyond candlestick charts; a single bullish candlestick may save not only the longs but also US treasuries.

#比特幣 #美債危機 #PCE數據 #資金風險偏好 #BTC