If the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market still hold, then the next half month is the final window period. Whether a bull market can come will depend on this last half month. Bitcoin's market share has risen again to 63.9%. Based on past bull market experiences, a market share above 64% is already considered a very high proportion, and it will gradually decline into altcoin season. Meanwhile, according to cyclical patterns, this round of bull market in the cryptocurrency world will end after October this year. The remaining months of July, August, September, and October are the last chances for altcoins to inflate and sell. Otherwise, the time is too short; the operating time and space are simply insufficient for the whales. Therefore, we have already entered the final critical time stage. Based on Bitcoin's implied volatility, Bitcoin's implied volatility has recently dropped to the low point of September 2023, which means that the cryptocurrency market will soon determine its direction completely.
It will either be a black swan that completely breaks the cyclical patterns or a bull market that starts adhering to the cyclical patterns. After a month of decline due to a black swan, consolidation usually requires two months, meaning that even if we do not enter a bear market after the black swan, the cyclical patterns will be completely broken and rendered ineffective.
I still tend to believe that the cyclical patterns will be followed; this can be considered a kind of faith. If there is risk, I will reduce my holdings in a timely manner. If I find that the direction is completely downward, it will mean that the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market are completely invalidated, and I will stop loss and accept the loss in a timely manner while considering exiting this circle. Because the charm of the cryptocurrency market lies in its strong cyclicality. With this in place, the speculative value of the cryptocurrency market is far higher than that of the stock market. If there are no longer any cyclical patterns, then I believe that the cost-effectiveness of the cryptocurrency market is gone, and it is better to invest in stocks. So, this half month is crucial.
It will either be a black swan that completely breaks the cyclical patterns or a bull market that starts adhering to the cyclical patterns. After a month of decline due to a black swan, consolidation usually requires two months, meaning that even if we do not enter a bear market after the black swan, the cyclical patterns will be completely broken and rendered ineffective.
I still tend to believe that the cyclical patterns will be followed; this can be considered a kind of faith. If there is risk, I will reduce my holdings in a timely manner. If I find that the direction is completely downward, it will mean that the cyclical patterns of the cryptocurrency market are completely invalidated, and I will stop loss and accept the loss in a timely manner while considering exiting this circle. Because the charm of the cryptocurrency market lies in its strong cyclicality. With this in place, the speculative value of the cryptocurrency market is far higher than that of the stock market. If there are no longer any cyclical patterns, then I believe that the cost-effectiveness of the cryptocurrency market is gone, and it is better to invest in stocks. So, this half month is crucial.
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BTC
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