Old Vine Review | The Monthly Line is Approaching Closure, This Bull Market Still Needs to Wait
Today is May 29th, and there are 3 days left until the monthly line closes.
First, let's talk about the big direction. My overall view remains the same: the bull market isn't coming that quickly, expectations should be pushed to August to September.
Why?
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is starting to sound tough again, and a rate cut in June is basically out of the question, at the earliest it will have to wait until August-September. Although some smaller countries are beginning to adjust their benchmark interest rates, the U.S. hasn't budged, and market funds are reluctant to take too much risk. Additionally, while trade pressures have eased somewhat, the positive effects aren't strong enough to accelerate the overall pace.
Looking at the sentiment, the greed index has been running above 60 throughout May; the market isn't panicking, but it's also not at a real peak.
Most of the altcoins are still digesting the bubble from the spike at the end of April; only a few are in a major uptrend, while the rest are either declining gradually or consolidating. Therefore, many people feeling that “the bull market has arrived” is actually just an illusion created by a structural market trend.
Now looking back at BTC, it's hovering around 108,000 today, having dropped almost 4,000 points from the high of 114,800. These four thousand points are actually the current defensive zone.
How it goes from here depends on the monthly line closure:
If the price can be pulled back above 110,000 in the next two or three days, the monthly line will close positively, and we can continue to look for upward momentum next month.
If we close below 106,000 in the last few days of the month, it will be dangerous; this trend resembles the peak-testing phase of last December, where it first made a new high and then continuously retracted. Technically, this would become a “failed peak test + monthly line engulfing,” which could easily open up downward space.
There is a small data release at 8:30 PM tonight; it’s not big, but it could cause a short-term spike, so don’t be careless. The market is at a critical point, and any slight movement could trigger fund fluctuations.
So overall, my rhythm is:
No rush; a bull market isn’t called into existence; it's built with real money. In the current structural rotation + main force testing phase, it's not yet time for a full charge; waiting until August to September is more stable.
