The bull market is not in a hurry; June's pullback and July is the time to prepare.

On the fundamental side, things haven't been calm these past few days:

Trump's team is working on a tariff Plan B, proposing a 15% tariff over 150 days, clearly indicating that trade frictions are about to escalate again;

The SEC is starting to shift its stance, clearly stating that equity pledges do not constitute securities issuance while proactively withdrawing its lawsuit against Binance;

What does this mean? Regulation is loosening, the attitude is warming up, and there is actually quite a bit of good news — but the market is still stagnant, a typical case where good news is realized but the market doesn't rise.

Let’s talk about the technical side:

Regarding BTC, I've been emphasizing a rhythm these past few days:

When the monthly increase is too strong, it's hard not to see an upper shadow at the end of the month. Now, three consecutive days of decline have appeared, and yesterday it just happened to fall below the 7-day moving average, with the trend completely within expectations. The daily line has already broken the upward channel, with 108500 becoming a clear resistance. Looking further down, 103000 is short-term support; if it can't hold here, we will need to watch around 98000.

The four-hour level is moving in a fluctuating downward structure, and the rebounds are relatively weak, so the rhythm is to take short-term longs but don’t get too attached; we’ll talk about the pullback later.

Intraday focus points:

Resistance: 106500-107500

Support: 104500-103500

ETH is similar; the daily line surged to 2788 yesterday but was pushed down, and it’s barely holding above the moving average now. However, overall market sentiment is weak; it can hold, but it’s also a fact that it can’t rise.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are spikes and rebounds, and the patterns are correct, but the overall structure is still biased towards a bearish fluctuation.

Intraday points to focus on:

Upper resistance: 2640-2660

Lower support: 2550-2530

As for altcoins, it’s even more evident.

Many friends ask why altcoins have been dropping so sharply recently; the logic is quite simple: this round of adjustment is a healthy correction. In early May, there was a surge; if we don’t have a pullback, how can we go far?

Now most altcoins have fallen back to the starting range of early May, with some even breaking previous lows, but this is not a bad thing; instead, it’s a new opportunity to prepare.

To summarize the overall direction:

Old Vine has never felt that this round of the market can directly return to the rhythm of the bull market in June or July. A more likely rhythm is:

Now is the stage of building a bottom + accumulating momentum.

In August and September, the market may start to move up again.

So during the festival period, everyone should stay steady, don’t rush, keep your bullets ready, and when the market comes, there will naturally be opportunities to profit.