1. Technical Analysis (TA)
*** 24H & H4 frame (BTC/USDT Perp)
General trend: BTC has maintained a dominant upward trend since the bottom of 74.5K in mid-March, the price is currently narrowing in the range of 107–112 K, forming a slight symmetrical triangle on the 24H chart.
*Support – Resistance
Strong resistance: the peak area of May around 111.9 K (historical peak on your chart).
Near support: 106 K–107 K (previous peak of April, also equivalent to short-term MA20/MA50) and the area of 103.7 K (MA100 H4 + previous peak end of May).
Momentum indicator
RSI 24H ~60, MACD 24H still above zero but the histogram is contracting → the upward momentum shows signs of weakening, a breakout is needed to confirm a new 'wave.'
On the H4 frame, Bollinger Bands are contracting ('low' volatility), often signaling a breakout is preparing.
Volume & Order-flow
Exchange liquidity (Volume) is gradually decreasing as the price hits resistance, indicating that buying pressure is not as strong as in previous phases.
Orderbook Liquidity Ratio around –0.01 → supply-demand is almost balanced.
Whale Index (H4) has shifted from deep negative (net selling) in mid-May to around +15 → indicating whales are 'satisfied' with this price, selling less, but have not fully transitioned to aggressive buying.
2. On-chain Data
Open Interest (OI) & Funding Rate
OI/Market Cap ~0.04 on the 24H frame, basically stable, no signs of hot margin inflow (as when there is a strong upward wave).
Funding Rate (aggregated) still around 0% to +0.005%, meaning long/short is basically balanced, there is no overheating 'long' wave.
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)
CVD has maintained a sideways/slight decrease trend since mid-May (~–220 K), indicating more 'spot' distribution than net buying – light selling is still prevailing in terms of volume.Whale & Top-Trader Sentiment
Whale Long/Short Ratio >1 (about 1.04–1.10 depending on account or position), meaning whales are still slightly leaning 'buy.'
Top Trader Accounts and Positions ratio ~1.8 → professional trader group generally still holds long overweight, but at a level not as high as the wave peak.
3. Sentiment & Macroeconomics
Fear & Greed Index ~65 (currently at 'Greed')
Not too wary but not at an overly 'fomo' level (above 75), meaning the market is hesitating: waiting to see if the upward momentum is strong enough to break the old peak or not.
US Dollar Index (DXY) around 99.9
USD is stable, with no strong fluctuations in yield or Fed policy, still a neutral factor.
DeFi TVL & Total Market Cap ex-BTC
DeFi TVL ~214 B, has accumulated sideways since the beginning of the year → new capital flowing into DeFi is stagnant, meaning 'hot money' is not in a rush to pump more into alt.
Total Market Cap ex-BTC ~895 B–1.23 T depending on the frame, also moving sideways since the beginning of May.
4. Conclusion & Scenarios
Continued increase scenario
Trigger factor: Clear breakout on H4/24H through 112 K, accompanied by increased volume, funding rate flipping to >+0.01% → will pave the way up to 120–125 K.
Observed area: 112 K → 120 K (fib extensions, valuation area of 2.4–2.6 T market cap).
Correction scenario
If the price falls below 106 K with increased selling volume, CVD drops sharply → may retest support at 103.7 K or deeper at 100 K (psychological area, MA200 H4).
Funding rate drops to –0.01% → shorts begin to dominate, increasing the risk of a short-term 'dump.'
Summary
BTC is in a 'spring compression' phase after a strong upward wave to 111.9 K. On-chain and order flow indicate that buy/sell pressure is basically balanced, with no clear breakout yet. Technically, the 106–107 K range is an important support barrier; breaking above 112 K with volume will mark the next 'wave X' cycle. Conversely, breaking below 106 K, the 100 K threshold will be tested before deciding the trend.
Wishing everyone trading carefully, managing risk tightly!