On-chain & Order-flow


IndicatorCurrent StatusMeaningCVD (24H)–10.9 M (currently flat)Still showing slight distribution, but signs of halting sellingOpen Interest (OI)Increased from 11 M → 13 M contractsMargin flow is coming in, indicating expectations for trend continuationFunding Rate+0.0085 % (positive)Slight long dominance, not too hot (below +0.02 %)OI / Market Cap~0.08 on 24HRelatively high, reflecting increased leverageOrderbook Liquidity Ratio+0.08Better buying power, buyers are increasing liquidityWhale Index (24H)+237Whales are actively accumulating, reinforcing upward momentum

On-chain conclusion:

Derivative money flow (OI) and positive funding rate support the bull case.

High whale index shows that big players are returning to accumulate ETH.

CVD has not clearly reversed, need to monitor if the final distribution turns into accumulation.

Sentiment & Macroeconomics

Fear & Greed Index (ETH) ~21 ('Fear') → still room for 'smart money' to accumulate.

TVL DeFi ~214 B USD, moving sideways → capital into DeFi has not exploded, the money flow into ETH mainly comes from spot & derivatives.

DXY ~99.95 stable, not exerting strong pressure on crypto.

Scenario & Strategy


ScenarioActivation ConditionsNext TargetSupport to HoldBullClose H4/1D >2,788 with volume3,000 – 3,200–SidewaysConsolidation 2,650–2,788Hold accumulation zone2,650BearBreak below 2,650 (with declining CVD, inverted funding rate)2,450 → 2,3002,650, 2,572

Enter long orders around the 2,650–2,700 range, set stop loss below 2,600; gradually take profit at targets 2,800, 3,000.

Short warning if breaking strongly below 2,650 (large sell volume, negative funding), targeting 2,500.


In summary, ETH has completed an important recovery phase, and is currently accumulating before the resistance zone of 2,788–2,800. On-chain data and whale activity still support the bull case, while market sentiment is at 'fear' (good for buying). Monitoring a breakout above 2,788 with volume will be a key signal to confirm the next upward wave.



Wishing you all the best

safe and efficient trading!