Can Bitcoin become 'digital gold'? This is the hottest topic in the crypto circle. Let's first look at the differences between it and gold: The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, which is scarce like gold, but it is much more volatile—by 2025, it can fluctuate by 3.2% daily, while gold is only 0.5%. Although institutions have started to treat it as a 'gold-like' asset (the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen from 0.21 in 2020 to 0.62 in 2025), it still needs to overcome three hurdles to truly become 'digital gold':

First hurdle: No more roller coasters. Currently, Bitcoin's price follows the Federal Reserve's policies and ETF funds, resulting in excessive volatility. However, large institutions like BlackRock have already purchased over 12% of the circulating supply. If a spot ETF is approved in the future, volatility may decrease from 70% to 40%-50%, making it more akin to gold's 'stability'.

Second hurdle: Clear policy guidance. The U.S. SEC has not yet approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, and the European Union is requiring it to be included under anti-money laundering regulations, which undermines Bitcoin's 'decentralization' advantage. However, places like Switzerland and El Salvador are testing 'Bitcoin reserves', which might open a breakthrough.

Third hurdle: Technology must not lag behind. The Bitcoin network can only process 7 transactions per second, and the transfer fee is as high as 18 dollars. Fortunately, the Lightning Network has reduced the cost of small transactions to below 1 cent, and with mining companies using renewable energy (68% of mining sites in North America now use green energy), some shortcomings are finally being addressed.

But Bitcoin is not the only contender: Ethereum is transforming into 'digital crude oil' through smart contracts, central bank digital currencies have national endorsements, and even algorithmic stablecoins are competing for market share. Bitcoin needs to find a good position between 'decentralization' and 'compliance', or it risks being outperformed.

What are the trends for 2025? In the short term, it remains a high-risk asset, suitable for testing the waters with 5% of your money; in the medium term, if policies and technology keep up, it could become a 'digitally scarce asset' for institutional allocation; in the long term, whether it can surpass gold depends on global de-dollarization and the trust in 'decentralization'.

Final reminder: Bitcoin has potential, but it could also go to zero due to technological failures or policy crackdowns. Friends who want to keep up, remember to follow me for more trend analysis updates! If you find this useful, share it with your crypto circle partners, and let's discuss your views on Bitcoin in the comments section~ #数字黄金储备