BTC Daily – Breakthrough price but technical signals are warning of overheating

Observing the D1 frame, Bitcoin has surpassed the strong resistance level of 104k and shot straight to the 111k region. This increase extends from the low of 77k in mid-April, forming a rising wedge. However, the RSI indicator has reached a level of 77 – the overbought region; although the MACD is still positive, the width of the histogram is narrowing.

Two points to note:

Rising Wedge: The price continuously touches the upper edge of the sloping channel but does not create a clearly higher peak. Wedges often end with a breakdown, pulling the price down to the bottom of the channel (around 104k) or deeper to the support region of 100–102k.

RSI & MACD Divergence: RSI above 70 indicates that the buying side is getting exhausted. The negative divergence from the MACD histogram (decreasing despite rising prices) warns of a potential technical pullback.

Personal Strategy

- Wait for a pullback, do not chase purchases in the 111k–112k range.

- Short probing when the D1 candle closes below the middle line of the channel (~108k), with a tight 1% stop-loss and a minimum target of 3–4% down to 104k.

- Long again if BTC tests back to 104–105k and holds above the old support region, accompanied by RSI returning to 50–60 as a sign of healthy recovery.

This market is different from previous breakouts, as large capital flows tend to seek a "safe peak" rather than pushing down continuously. Recognizing wedges and divergences helps me avoid entering trades during a hot pump.

Personal analysis, not investment advice.