BTC 1h – Price rises, Negative CVD: Who is selling to whom?
Observing the 1h chart, BTC just broke through the 104k threshold to reach 106–107k, but the unusual thing lies in the spot CVD (cumulative volume delta): while the price rises, CVD continuously declines – meaning retail sellers are offloading, while futures buyers are accumulating.
Specifically:
- Spot CVD has dropped sharply (≈ −46k), indicating net selling pressure on the spot exchange.
- Aggregated futures bid/ask delta has recently recorded ~+3k, meaning the futures long side is actively chasing higher prices.
- Open Interest remains around 85k BTC, with a funding rate close to 0 indicating no new leverage wave has emerged, but money has entered to hold positions.
Two consequences:
- Warning divergence: when the price rises but spot CVD is negative, the likelihood of the price being “pulled” up by futures to shake out small hands; if futures buyers do not continue to pull, a pullback can easily occur.
- Neutral funding: not forcing longs to pay fees, meaning the market is balancing leverage; a strong flip to positive funding is necessary for a sustainable upward move.
Personal strategy:
- Short-term long scalp: if H1 closes above 106.5k with futures delta continuing positive, enter long targeting 108k, SL 1%.
- Short pullback: if spot CVD continues negative and H1 closes below 105k, short probing, TP 2–3% towards 102k, SL 1.2%.
- Hold spot: anyone holding BTC can hedge 20% with a short perp, reducing risk if a pullback occurs.
- Today’s market is not lacking in volatility – the challenge is to read the liquidity bottom correctly. Price increases are not necessarily a sign that “prices will continue to rise,” but sometimes just mean “someone is paying a higher price.”
[Personal analysis, not investment advice.]
