BTC Spot Capital Flow – "The Runaway" Hasn't Stopped the Price
The Spot Inflow/Outflow chart shows that since the end of July 2024, funds and investors have continuously withdrawn BTC from exchanges (in red) with several outflows of 300–600 million USD, even reaching up to 1.1 billion USD on some days. Meanwhile, inflows (in green) have only occasionally touched 500–800 million USD. However, the price of BTC has gone in the opposite direction: from around 28k USD in July 2024, it has surged to over 110k USD currently.
Three points I am monitoring:
Strong outflow but price still rises: This indicates reduced liquidity on exchanges, increasing the price momentum as BTC is "held" in cold wallets, making large demand easily push prices higher.
Inflows explode with "ETF waves": Each time there is an influx of BTC ETF capital (like in mid-November, December, March), spot inflows also spike accordingly. However, after the ETF pump, prices often experience a slight correction when inflows turn negative.
The "fear of missing out" mentality: Retail investors continue to withdraw BTC from exchanges, not selling off, expecting prices to rise further despite the market being in the red. This persistence supports the price increase.
Personal strategy:
With spot, I do not sell BTC during the ongoing outflow phase, as withdrawing from exchanges means reduced liquidity pressure.
With futures, I open a light long position when I see sudden inflows >300 million USD/day, setting a SL of 1% and a TP of 3% based on the price channel I monitor.
Be cautious if inflows continuously remain negative >500 million USD for several days, as this could be a sign of market spot depletion and the possibility of a "pump and dump" may arise.
Personal analysis, not investment advice.
