DeltaSoul

Dòng vốn Spot BTC – “Tháo chạy” chưa khiến giá chùn châN

Biểu đồ Spot Inflow/Outflow cho thấy kể từ cuối tháng 7/2024, các quỹ và nhà đầu tư liên tục rút BTC khỏi sàn (màu đỏ) với nhiều đợt outflow 300–600 triệu USD, thậm chí có ngày lên tới 1.1 tỷ USD. Trong khi đó, dòng tiền vào (màu xanh) chỉ vài lần chạm 500–800 triệu USD. Tuy nhiên, giá BTC lại đi ngược: từ vùng 28 k USD hồi tháng 7/2024 đã vọt lên trên 110 k USD hiện tại.

Ba điểm tôi theo dõi:

Outflow mạnh nhưng giá vẫn tăng: Điều này cho thấy thanh khoản sàn giảm, làm tăng đà tăng giá vì BTC bị “ém hàng” trên ví lạnh, khiến cầu lớn dễ đẩy giá cao hơn.

Các đợt Inflow bùng nổ theo “sóng ETF”: Mỗi khi có dòng vốn ETF BTC đổ vào (như giữa tháng 11, tháng 12, tháng 3), dòng spot inflow cũng bật tăng tương ứng. Tuy nhiên, sau cú pump ETF, giá thường có nhịp điều chỉnh nhẹ khi inflow quay về âm.

Tâm lý “fear of missing out”: Nhà đầu tư retail vẫn giữ xu hướng rút BTC khỏi sàn, không bán tháo, kỳ vọng giá tiếp tục lên dù thị trường olor đỏ. Sự bền bỉ này là yếu tố hỗ trợ cho đà tăng giá.

Chiến lược cá nhân:

Với spot, tôi không bán BTC trong giai đoạn outflow tiếp diễn, vì rút sàn đồng nghĩa với giảm áp lực thanh khoản.

Với futures, tôi mở long nhẹ khi thấy inflow đột biến >300 triệu USD/ngày, đặt SL 1 % và TP 3 % dựa vào kênh giá theo dõi.

Chú ý nếu inflow liên tục âm >500 triệu USD trong nhiều ngày, đó có thể là dấu hiệu cạn kiệt thị trường spot và khả năng “pump and dump” sẽ xuất hiện.

Phân tích cá nhân, không phải khuyến nghị đầu tư.
$BTC

BTC Daily – Breakthrough price but technical signals are warning of overheating

Observing the D1 frame, Bitcoin has surpassed the strong resistance level of 104k and shot straight to the 111k region. This increase extends from the low of 77k in mid-April, forming a rising wedge. However, the RSI indicator has reached a level of 77 – the overbought region; although the MACD is still positive, the width of the histogram is narrowing.

Two points to note:

Rising Wedge: The price continuously touches the upper edge of the sloping channel but does not create a clearly higher peak. Wedges often end with a breakdown, pulling the price down to the bottom of the channel (around 104k) or deeper to the support region of 100–102k.

RSI & MACD Divergence: RSI above 70 indicates that the buying side is getting exhausted. The negative divergence from the MACD histogram (decreasing despite rising prices) warns of a potential technical pullback.

Personal Strategy
- Wait for a pullback, do not chase purchases in the 111k–112k range.
- Short probing when the D1 candle closes below the middle line of the channel (~108k), with a tight 1% stop-loss and a minimum target of 3–4% down to 104k.
- Long again if BTC tests back to 104–105k and holds above the old support region, accompanied by RSI returning to 50–60 as a sign of healthy recovery.

This market is different from previous breakouts, as large capital flows tend to seek a "safe peak" rather than pushing down continuously. Recognizing wedges and divergences helps me avoid entering trades during a hot pump.

Personal analysis, not investment advice.

BTC 1h – Price rises, Negative CVD: Who is selling to whom?

Observing the 1h chart, BTC just broke through the 104k threshold to reach 106–107k, but the unusual thing lies in the spot CVD (cumulative volume delta): while the price rises, CVD continuously declines – meaning retail sellers are offloading, while futures buyers are accumulating.

Specifically:
- Spot CVD has dropped sharply (≈ −46k), indicating net selling pressure on the spot exchange.
- Aggregated futures bid/ask delta has recently recorded ~+3k, meaning the futures long side is actively chasing higher prices.
- Open Interest remains around 85k BTC, with a funding rate close to 0 indicating no new leverage wave has emerged, but money has entered to hold positions.

Two consequences:
- Warning divergence: when the price rises but spot CVD is negative, the likelihood of the price being “pulled” up by futures to shake out small hands; if futures buyers do not continue to pull, a pullback can easily occur.
- Neutral funding: not forcing longs to pay fees, meaning the market is balancing leverage; a strong flip to positive funding is necessary for a sustainable upward move.

Personal strategy:
- Short-term long scalp: if H1 closes above 106.5k with futures delta continuing positive, enter long targeting 108k, SL 1%.
- Short pullback: if spot CVD continues negative and H1 closes below 105k, short probing, TP 2–3% towards 102k, SL 1.2%.
- Hold spot: anyone holding BTC can hedge 20% with a short perp, reducing risk if a pullback occurs.
- Today’s market is not lacking in volatility – the challenge is to read the liquidity bottom correctly. Price increases are not necessarily a sign that “prices will continue to rise,” but sometimes just mean “someone is paying a higher price.”

[Personal analysis, not investment advice.]
$BTC

Derivatives Market 21/5 – Altcoin Dipping, Memecoin 'Unrivaled'

This morning, opening the derivatives board, I couldn't help but be startled by the red spread from BTC to XRP, SOL, SUI, or HYPE, even though BTC only slightly decreased by −0.4%. The futures volume of ETH and XRP fell by −10% and −29%, respectively, and OI (24h) also shrank across most major pairs, indicating that speculative capital is fleeing.

The only bright spot is
- TRUMP (+7.7% price, volume +117%, OI +24%) – this memecoin keeps breaking out even as the entire market struggles.

Looking at the funding rate, most futures funds are 'paying' a positive fee (long pays short), meaning the Long side is dominating but not translating into sustainable price momentum. This is a warning sign: when everyone thinks prices will rise, the risk often comes from an unexpected pullback.

Personal Strategy

1. Mid-tier ALT:
– Short SOL/SUI when H1 closes below 165/3.75, SL 1%, TP 3–5%.
– Limit holding time to no more than 12h; OI is decreasing, lacking momentum.
2. BTC – ETH:
– Short BTC perp around 106k, SL 1.2%, TP 2–3% towards the 102–103k range.
– For ETH, short when it breaks below 2,500, SL 1.5%, TP 2–4%.
3. 'Surviving' Memecoin:
– TRUMP is seeing a strong increase in volume & OI; if BTC adjusts, this could be the 'last resort' memecoin to hedge. Long TRUMP small with tight SL of 5%.

Portfolio Defense:
– Hedge 30% spot BTC by shorting perp;
– Reduce altcoin leverage to a maximum of 2x;
– Monitor funding and OI every 4h to be ready to cut orders.

The market is entering a 'margin liquidation' phase after a series of pumps. The key is not to predict the top or bottom but to manage risk carefully: enter small, have tight stop losses, and don't rush to extend positions.

Personal analysis, not investment advice.
$BTC