Daily K trend analysis:
The aggressive long idea we provided for Bitcoin yesterday has been perfectly validated in the 104,800-104,300 range: the first touch at 104,800 rebounded about 500-700 points; while the performance at 104,300 was even more impressive, directly V-shaped reversing up about 4,000 points. This allowed many investors who adopted the suggestion to gain substantial profits, with some friends commenting, 'I enjoyed it.' On the daily level, Bitcoin closed yesterday with a strong bullish candle, not only breaking through the previous day's vertical line bearish candle but also setting a historic highest closing price (around 106,700, close to 107,000), exceeding the previous record of 106,000. This breakout trend has sent strong bullish signals to the market, leading many investors to feel that 'the bullish market is about to start again, and if you don’t get on board, you’ll miss it.'
However, Aleng reminds everyone to pay attention to an important phenomenon: during this round of increases, every occurrence of a long lower shadow sell-off has been in a state of rising along the trend line, indicating that Bitcoin has yet to liquidate the previous bullish cluster. Comparing to each major bull market of Bitcoin in history, whether at the 110,000 peak, 73,000, 49,000 (the day the ETF was approved), or earlier in the 21 bull market, Bitcoin has undergone a bullish washout in each round of increases. Therefore, as we approach historical highs, investors need to be particularly vigilant that bullish liquidation may soon commence.
In terms of technical indicators, MACD is still in a death cross state, and the bullish volume has not experienced explosive growth, which suggests that the current rally to 110,000 may be a temporary rebound, followed by a potential bullish washout; only after this washout can a genuine upward trend begin. Based on this judgment, today's operational strategy could consider shorting near the previous high, while also starting to lay out potential bullish liquidation points (near the daily EMA average).#比特币走势分析
Previous review:
The key advice we provided yesterday has been validated by the market:
The aggressive long strategy in the 104,800-104,300 range for Bitcoin has achieved significant success, allowing followers to profit considerably.
The head and shoulders bottom pattern at the 2450 position for Ethereum also hit precisely, reversing directly after touching and rising 150 points.
Although these short-term suggestions have succeeded, we still need to be wary of larger structural changes in the market, especially in the absence of historical key steps (bullish liquidation), as the market may face larger adjustments.
Resistance level:
Resistance level 1: 114,350 (daily level bearish shark 1.13 false breakout position).
Resistance level 2: 110,200 (bearish crab pattern position)
Support level:
Support level 1: 99,800 (potential bullish liquidation point + 0.628 Fibonacci retracement + near EMA30).
Support level 2: 95,300 (daily level EMA60 position).$BTC
Market analysis:
Currently, even though Bitcoin has reached a historic highest closing price, there are still technical concerns: MACD remains in a death cross state, and bullish volume has not effectively increased, while historical trends indicate a lack of necessary bullish liquidation steps. In this case, although there is a breakout performance in the short term, it may be a sign of a 'false breakout'. Considering historical patterns and technical indicators, caution is still needed for the possible appearance of a bullish washout process at the current position.
In terms of resistance, Bitcoin has not yet reached our expected resistance level of 110,200, nor the further 114,350. This indicates that there is still upward space in the short term, but the closer it gets to these key resistance levels, the higher the risk. In terms of support, 99,800 (corresponding to the daily EMA30 + 0.628 retracement + 1.13 false breakdown liquidity liquidation point) constitutes the primary support; if a deep pullback occurs, 95,300 (daily EMA60) may provide secondary support.
The main operational strategies are divided into three parts:
Aggressive long-chasing strategy (higher risk):
Use the 15-minute chart to draw the upward trend line (connecting two low points).
Enter when the price pulls back to the trend line position (around 105,500, corresponding to 0.628 retracement).
Set the target around 110,000 (historical resistance level).
Set the stop-loss at the position where the trend line is broken.
As time progresses, the trend line needs to be dynamically adjusted (it may need to be adjusted to the 50% retracement level around 9 PM tonight).
This strategy is suitable for aggressive bullish investors willing to take high risks.
Shorting strategy near previous highs:
Consider shorting in the 110,000-110,200 area.
The target can be set at 99,800 (potential bullish liquidation point).
Set the stop-loss at the point of breakthrough of 110,200 and confirm the closing.
This strategy is based on historical patterns, believing that bullish liquidation is a necessary process.
Bullish liquidation layout strategy (medium to long-term):
Lay out a long position near 99,800 (daily EMA30 + 0.628 retracement level).
Increase positions further when retracing to 95,300 (daily EMA60).
Targeting new upward breakthroughs at historical highs.
This strategy is suitable for patient medium to long-term investors.
Important technical hints:
The daily closing price has reached a historic high, but the MACD remains in a death cross state.
Historically, Bitcoin experiences a bullish liquidation process in every round of increases, which has not yet occurred.
The support level of the upward trend line coincides with the 0.628 retracement level, forming a crucial support at 105,500.
If pursuing a long strategy, closely monitor the state of the trend line; if it breaks, stop loss.
99,800 is not only a technical support but also a potential bullish liquidation target.
Supplementary analysis of Ethereum:
Ethereum formed a doji candlestick yesterday, lacking the breakthrough characteristics seen in Bitcoin. The MACD indicator is weaker than Bitcoin, and the bullish volume continues to decrease; if a bearish candle is formed today, it may lead to a death cross. On the 4-hour level, although the movement was strong last night, the price still failed to break through the 0.618 reversal level, with two closing candles unable to stabilize at that position. On the hourly level, the rising trend line established by two low points exerts downward pressure on the price, indicating insufficient upward momentum.
Based on these observations, it is not recommended to chase Ethereum long today, as the risk is significantly higher than Bitcoin. If Bitcoin begins to pull back, Ethereum may 'reveal its true colors', with potentially larger declines. Possible subsequent support levels include:
Near the previous low
2280 (1.13 false breakdown position, bullish liquidity liquidation point)
Around 2200 (major wave 0.382-0.618 retracement area)
Subsequently, Ethereum is likely to continue to oscillate downward until it reaches the spot buying point we previously analyzed. Overall, Ethereum's performance is weaker than Bitcoin, and the technical indicators are more fatigued, so aggressive short-term operations are not recommended.#以太坊etf
Summary: Although Bitcoin has reached a historic highest closing price, it lacks the necessary bullish liquidation process, which poses a concern. For operations, aggressive investors can attempt to go long near 105,500 (trend line + 0.628 retracement), targeting around 110,000; they may also consider shorting in the 110,000-110,200 area, targeting 99,800; long-term investors can prepare to lay out for the next round of increases at 99,800 (daily EMA30) and 95,300 (daily EMA60). Ethereum is performing weaker than Bitcoin, so chasing long is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the two potential support levels at 2280 and 2200. Overall, there are signs of bullish overheating in the current market, and investors should remain vigilant, closely monitoring potential bullish liquidation trends.