Daily K Trend Analysis:
Yesterday, Bitcoin's market followed our prediction of 'divergent rise, high pullback' trend, ultimately dropping approximately 4000 points. This validates the accuracy of our previous warnings—if acted cautiously according to our suggestions, not only would one avoid the risks of chasing highs, but also would not suffer severe losses or liquidation. However, there is also regret; Aleng placed a short order at 109,900 last night at 11 PM but missed the opportunity by a few points, missing this wave of the market.
The key question is whether yesterday's drop achieved the effect of a bullish washout? Did it liquidate bullish liquidity? From a technical perspective, the answer is no. Yesterday's drop did not even break the 15-minute trend line, let alone the daily trend line. At the daily level, Bitcoin formed a bullish candle yesterday, and the lower shadow did not touch the EMA7, and MACD once again showed a top divergence, indicating that Bitcoin is still in the high-pullback stage, rather than the beginning of a healthy rise. A truly effective bullish liquidation should at least break the consolidation zone, reach near the EMA30, and form a pattern of 'high-volume drop, needle rebound, slow rise to new highs,' and only after establishing a high point should a healthy correction begin.
From historical experience, Bitcoin experiences such a washout process in each round of bull markets. This key step has not yet occurred, so investors still need to remain highly vigilant. Today's operational thinking should be more cautious, reducing trading frequency, especially wary of possible waterfall-style washouts.
Previous Review:
Yesterday we warned about the risks of chasing highs and hinted at possible bullish liquidation; this judgment has been validated by the market, as the price indeed experienced a drop of 4000 points. We also mentioned the shorting point at 109,900, although the actual maximum was only around 109,800, missing the trigger by a few points. Additionally, our view on Ethereum was also quite accurate; it indeed weakened yesterday, dropping about 50 points near the previous high of 2647, consistent with expectations.
Although Ethereum has formed a bullish bat pattern, careful observation reveals that this was formed after a sharp drop with high volume breaking the trend line, which constitutes an extreme market situation, thereby reducing the reliability of buy signals in such cases.
Resistance Level:
Resistance Level 1: 114,350 (daily bearish shark position)
Support Level:
Support Level 1: 103,000 (near daily EMA30, has moved up slightly)
Market Analysis:
The current Bitcoin market shows a clear state of divergence between bulls and bears, rather than a one-sided market. From the action of the EMA moving averages, it is not rising according to standard rules but rather 'rise once, drop once'; the most recent crash even reached 4000 points, reflecting fierce competition between bulls and bears. In this case, the market urgently needs a large-scale bullish washout to re-integrate forces, which may open the next round of one-sided rise.
Technically, MACD still shows top divergence, and yesterday's drop did not touch key support levels (such as daily EMA30), indicating that bullish liquidity has not been fully liquidated. Compared to historical trends, the current state resembles the high-pullback stage of a mid-bull market, rather than a healthy rise after a correction. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce trading frequency and patiently wait for a true washout to complete.
The main operational strategy is divided into two parts:
Watch-and-Wait Strategy (Recommended):
Current position is not suitable for chasing highs; reduce trading frequency.
Closely monitor potential waterfall washout signals.
Avoid high-risk areas and maintain cash positions to wait for better opportunities.
This strategy is suitable for most investors, especially those with lower risk tolerance.
Washout rebound strategy:
If a significant washout occurs and drops to around 103,000 (daily EMA30), consider trying to catch the needle.
Position should be light, with stop-loss set at the EMA30 breakout level.
Target can be set near the last high point.
This strategy carries higher risk and requires waiting for a clear washout signal to appear.
Important Technical Reminder:
Yesterday's drop did not break the 15-minute trend line, and even less so the daily trend line; bullish liquidation is insufficient.
MACD continues to show top divergence, warning of future risks.
A true bullish washout should at least break through the consolidation zone to near the EMA30.
The hourly EMA7 support has been broken, indicating weak short-term support.
The current 'rise once, drop once' pattern reflects serious divergence between bulls and bears, and caution is needed for significant volatility.
Ethereum Analysis Supplement:
Ethereum closed above the 0.618 position with significant volume on the 4-hour level yesterday, with the next key resistance level around 2740 (previous high). If this level can be broken, it is expected to test 2860 (upper boundary of the consolidation zone). However, the daily MACD is still in a continuous weakening process and is about to cross bearish, posing significant risks.#以太坊走势观察
In this case, even if the daytime market appears strong, a 'polar reversal' may occur after the U.S. stock market opens at night, so operations need to be particularly cautious. It is recommended to wait until one of the following conditions is met before considering going long:
Breakthrough at the 2740 resistance level (corresponding to the bearish butterfly 1.272 position on the hourly level).
A strong bullish candle was formed on the daily level, changing the MACD trend.
Bitcoin has completed the bullish washout process.
It is worth noting that during last night's crash, the trading volume was particularly high, while the subsequent rebound volume significantly decreased. This volume structure does not support a strong short-term rise. If there is further decline, attention can be paid to the 2220 support level (1.13 false break, bullish liquidity point).
Summary: Although Bitcoin dropped significantly yesterday, it has not yet reached the level of effective washout; bullish liquidity liquidation is insufficient. The current price is still in the high-pullback stage rather than the beginning of a healthy rise, and MACD continues to show a top divergence. It is recommended to reduce trading frequency, avoid chasing highs, and only consider lightly catching the needle near the daily EMA30 (around 103,000). The resistance level remains at 114,350 (daily bearish shark position). For Ethereum, the key resistance level is at 2740, and only a breakthrough at this level can be considered bullish; at the same time, closely monitor the risk of the daily MACD about to cross bearish. Overall, this analysis aims to alert investors to increase vigilance, reduce risk exposure, and patiently wait for a real washout to complete.