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Bitcoin finally made another push above 107000 last night, but only reached around 107108, then quickly dropped by 5000 dollars. Overall, the 4h level rebound here has basically ended. Next, we should look for a decline cycle lasting ten days to half a month.

Currently, it belongs to the first 4h level rebound reaching a peak, but this does not mean that the daily level structure has peaked, so after the pullback is nearly complete, there will be another wave of upward movement to test historical new highs. Since 74000, there has been a continuous rise for over 40 days; a drop of about ten days is completely normal and reasonable.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be used as a reference.

1H:

At the 1h level, Bitcoin broke through the third 1h level center yesterday, only pushing up to around 107000, before quickly dropping back to center 3. It is believed that it is highly likely that we are now in a 4h level pullback. If it breaks below 101000 again, it can basically be confirmed.

Overall, the 4h level decline tends to first build a 1h level center in the range of 98000~105000, then accelerate downwards, potentially reaching around 90000. Only after the overall 4h level pullback is completed will there be another push to historical new highs.

Currently, due to breaking below 102600, the 1h level rebound from yesterday has basically ended, and it should now be undergoing the first 1h level decline within the 4h level downtrend. This 1h decline has not ended; we will see if it can break 100000 and reach around 98000 by tomorrow morning.

15M:

15-minute level, currently undergoing the first 15-minute decline in a 1h level downtrend, pay attention to the range of 100000~101000 below, after which there may be a 15-minute rebound, expected not to exceed 104700. After the rebound, there will be a third 15-minute decline, expected to conclude by tomorrow afternoon or evening, specifics depend on the internal structure of the 15-minute level.

ETH

Recent analysis and operations for Ethereum have not been very good; I need to reflect on this.

The movement of Ethereum is relatively more volatile compared to Bitcoin. A few days ago, we mentioned that if Ethereum breaks below 2500, it would basically be considered that Ethereum starts to have a 4h basic decline. On May 15, Ethereum actually broke below 2500, reaching a low of 2476. Looking back now, our initial judgment had no issues; breaking below 2500 should indicate a bearish outlook for Ethereum.

The trouble with the market trend is that the short-term movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin have begun to diverge. Bitcoin did not break below 101000 on May 15, so it is not a problem for Bitcoin to make another push for a high point. The mistake was that we did not differentiate between the movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum, always thinking that if Bitcoin continued to break 106000, then Ethereum would likely follow the market and break above 2700.

Therefore, after Ethereum broke 2500 on May 15, we did not dare to boldly short Ethereum during the subsequent rebound. Last night's surge also raised concerns about whether Bitcoin's breakthrough would continue to drive Ethereum above 2700, which is why we did not dare to boldly short Ethereum. In reality, Ethereum's rebounds have been getting weaker.

This actually indicates that our judgment of Ethereum's critical point for bullish and bearish at 2500 is very accurate, but ultimately we did not manage to align action with our initial judgment.

Back to the present.

Ethereum is currently undergoing a 4h level decline, with two potential target areas: the first around 2050, and the second around 1900. Currently, it is undergoing the third 1h level decline, first paying attention to around 2250 below. After that, there is a chance of continuing to oscillate and consolidate a 1h level center before extending downwards.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction upwards, currently undergoing a new weekly level increase, with an overall target looking above 150000.

Daily level: Direction upwards, currently undergoing a daily level rebound, with a probability of continuing to create historical new highs.

4-hour level: Direction downwards, the first rebound of the 4h level has ended, watch for the second 4h level pullback.

1-hour level: Direction downwards, currently the first 1h level decline, watching for a drop below 100000 to around 98000.

15-minute level: Direction downwards, the first 15-minute decline, followed by a second rebound and a third decline.