Table of contents:
1. Large token unlocking data for this week;
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular coins/fund flows in sectors;
3. Bitcoin spot ETF dynamics;
4. Interpretation of #BTC liquidation map data;
5. Key macro events and key previews and interpretations for the crypto market this week.
1. Large token unlocking data for this week;
Coinank data shows that #PYTH , ZKJ, PIXEL, and other tokens will see significant unlocking this week, among which:
Pyth Network (PYTH) will unlock approximately 2.13 billion tokens at 10 PM on May 19, accounting for 58.62% of the current circulation, valued at about 338 million USD;
Polyhedra Network (ZKJ) will unlock approximately 15.53 million tokens at 8 AM on May 19, accounting for 5.3% of the current circulation, valued at about 32.3 million USD;
Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 9.118 million tokens at 6 PM on May 19, accounting for 11.83% of the current circulation, valued at about 4.7 million USD;
SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 12.65 million tokens at 8 AM on May 22, accounting for 2.94% of the current circulation, valued at about 2.7 million USD.
We believe that this week's token unlocking events will have structural impacts on market supply-demand relationships and investor expectations. Specifically:
The scale of PYTH unlocking is significant, and caution is needed regarding short-term selling pressure. Pyth Network will unlock 2.13 billion tokens (accounting for 58.62% of circulation), valued at up to 338 million USD. Although its underlying oracle network has long-term value support due to institutional backing (such as Jane Street and Jump Trading), approximately 16.67% of the unlock tokens will flow to private investors, who usually have strong motives to cash out. Historical cases show that projects with circulation increases of over 50% often face price correction pressures.
The unlocking of ZKJ may trigger a market cap reevaluation. The unlocking amount of Polyhedra Network's ZKJ token accounts for 5.3% of the circulation, but based on current market cap calculations, the proportion reaches 25.7%. Although some tokens are used for ecosystem incentives, its cross-chain interoperability technology zkBridge has not yet formed significant revenue support, and the market may maintain a cautious attitude towards the actual application progress post-unlocking.
The impact of PIXEL and ID unlocking is relatively limited. The unlocking rates for PIXEL and ID are 11.83% and 2.94%, respectively, which fall within the normal release range. As a GameFi project, PIXEL's tokens are primarily used for in-game incentives, and user stickiness may buffer selling pressure; approximately 70% of the ID unlocking tokens are directed to the foundation and ecological fund, and the restricted usage reduces the market supply impact.
Token unlocking is essentially a stress test of liquidity management capabilities. Project parties need to balance the exit needs of early investors with ecological construction goals, for example, PYTH will use 75% of the unlocked tokens for ecological growth, which, if executed effectively, can translate into long-term value. Investors should focus on the flow of tokens (private placements/team/ecology) and the project's fundamentals, avoiding the misconception of relying solely on unlocking ratios to assess risk. The recent Movement Labs incident exposed the risks of off-market trading manipulation, further highlighting the importance of transparent unlocking mechanisms.
2. Overview of the crypto market, a quick read on the weekly performance of popular coins/fund flows
CoinAnk data shows that in the past week, the crypto market has seen net inflows of funds categorized by concept sectors, including the Ethereum ecosystem, smart contracts, #BSC , Launchpool, and others.
In the past 7 days, the top performing coins are as follows (selected from the top 500 by market cap), with tokens like #NEIRO , #FXS , ATH, ULTIMA, and BGB showing relatively strong gains. This week, strong coins trading opportunities can continue to be prioritized.
3. Bitcoin spot ETF fund dynamics.
CoinAnk data shows that last week (May 12-18), the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $479 million, but in the first half of May, institutions increased their holdings by 26,700 BTC, more than 3.7 times the miner output during the same period, forming a divergence structure of 'fund outflow - real accumulation.'
The ETH/BTC ETF holding ratio has significantly increased, indicating a reversal signal in the Ethereum ecosystem. The MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC has dropped to a five-year low, implying significant valuation recovery potential. Coupled with the Pectra upgrade introducing modular account abstraction, institutional holdings have risen to 19%, marking a new high since 2023. On-chain liquidity indicators show that ETH exchange stock decreased by 12% weekly, while futures positions increased by 23%, forming a technical pattern of 'spot volume reduction - derivatives accumulation.'
We believe that the current rebound in the ETH/BTC exchange rate of 38% may be a precursor to a market style switch: First, the outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds suggests that some institutions are shifting towards yield enhancement strategies, with ETH staking yielding an annualized return of 4.2% creating attractiveness; secondly, the Coinbase ETH futures premium rate has risen to 0.15%, indicating that professional investors are betting on a follow-up rally; finally, the altcoin season index has rebounded to the 35 threshold, with historical data showing that this level often triggers excess return cycles of over 30% for small and mid-cap tokens. However, caution is warranted regarding increased selling pressure from Bitcoin miners—the MPI index has dropped to -1.2, combined with the reduction in block rewards post-halving, which may suppress overall market liquidity and delay the timing of a full-blown altcoin rally.
4. BTC liquidation map data.
CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks through $110,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $1.518 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $100,700, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $5.546 billion.
We believe that the current liquidation threshold in the Bitcoin market reflects the game pattern between bulls and bears at critical price points. According to the liquidation map data, if BTC breaks through $110,000, it will trigger $1.518 billion in short liquidations, which may lead to a 'short squeeze' effect, where short covering further pushes up prices, creating a positive feedback loop. Conversely, if the price falls below $100,700, the liquidation pressure of up to $5.546 billion in long positions suggests a dense leverage long position exists below; once critical support is breached, liquidity exhaustion may trigger a 'long liquidation' type sell-off, exacerbating short-term downside risks.
It is noteworthy that liquidation intensity is not an exact amount awaiting liquidation but is assessed based on the density of adjacent price level liquidation clusters to evaluate market reaction intensity upon price touch. For example, historical data shows that liquidation intensity at the same price level (like $100,000) varies significantly at different points in time (from $791 million to $1.012 billion), reflecting dynamic changes in market leverage structure and position distribution. This elastic characteristic indicates that the liquidation map essentially reveals market vulnerability points—when prices breach thresholds, the self-reinforcing effects of liquidity waves may far exceed the amplitude of fundamental-driven volatility.
The current asymmetry in long and short liquidation intensities (the intensity of long liquidations is 3.65 times that of shorts) may suggest that the market's defensive layout against short-term corrections is more concentrated, while also highlighting the vulnerability of funds chasing after high prices. Researchers need to be cautious of the amplifying effect of such technical liquidations on market sentiment, especially in the absence of significant fundamental catalysts, which may lead to extreme volatility disconnected from value anchoring.
5. Key macro events and key previews and interpretations for the crypto market this week.
CoinAnk data shows that the key macro events and key previews in the crypto market this week are as follows:
May 19: US legislators will conduct the final vote on the stablecoin GENIUS Act;
Solana will host the Accelerate 2025 crypto summit from May 19 to 23;
Sahara AI announced the launch of the SIWA public testnet;
May 20: The New York City mayor intensifies push for cryptocurrency plans ahead of the crypto summit;
May 22: The TRUMP dinner will be held on May 22, and the next phase of the token plan will be announced that day;
Numerous Federal Reserve officials will also speak from Monday to Friday.
The core variables of the crypto market this week focus on the two dimensions of policy regulation and political games, while also paying attention to the interactive effects of technical ecology and macro liquidity. First, the Senate's vote on the (GENIUS Act) on May 19 may become a watershed moment for the stablecoin market. This bill requires issuers to hold 100% reserves of highly liquid assets and mandates annual audits for projects with a market cap over $50 billion. Although this move may enhance market transparency and institutional participation, it may also suppress the innovation space for small and medium-sized stablecoins. If the bill passes, the USDC, which has lower compliance costs, may benefit, while the USDT, whose reserve transparency is questionable, will face pressure.
Secondly, the New York City mayor's push for crypto plans resonates with Trump's dinner policy narrative. New York City is attracting crypto companies through public-private partnerships, which may stimulate regional market activity; meanwhile, Trump announces token plans at the dinner, continuing his 'crypto strategic reserve' stance, possibly driving short-term speculation on meme tokens tied to personal IP (like $TRUMP). However, caution is needed regarding the policy reversal risks brought by political cycle fluctuations.
From a technical ecosystem perspective, the Solana summit and the launch of the Sahara AI testnet may boost market attention towards high-performance public chains. If Solana announces ecological support plans during the summit, it may alleviate the recent decline in trading volume; the Sahara AI testnet marks a new phase in the integration of AI and blockchain, potentially attracting institutional investments.
In terms of macro liquidity, the intensive speeches from Federal Reserve officials may reinforce the market's expectations regarding the interest rate path. Current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is only 11.6%. If officials release hawkish signals, it may suppress the risk appetite in the crypto market, leading funds to migrate towards stablecoins and other safe-haven assets. However, if the US dollar index weakens due to easing rate cut expectations, it may trigger a safe-haven linkage effect between Bitcoin and gold.
In summary, the compliance dividends brought by regulatory implementation and the narrative hype driven by political benefits form a dual main line in the short term, but the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains the underlying pricing anchor. In the long term, attention should be paid to the restructuring effects of the (GENIUS Act) on the stablecoin market structure and the substantial progress in AI+ blockchain applications.
