1. Core judgment of short-term trend
The key anchor point for today's Ethereum market trend is the important price level of 2410. The performance of the hourly candlestick at this point will become the core basis for judging whether a short-term rebound can be initiated.
Bullish initiation signal
If the hourly candlestick can effectively hold above 2410, and subsequently close above this price for two consecutive periods, it indicates the end of the minor pullback and the bullish power begins to dominate the market, a new round of rebound is likely to start, and the price may gradually test resistance levels upwards.
Bearish continuation signal
Conversely, if the Ethereum price closes below 2410 on the hourly level, it indicates that the minor rebound is weak, and the bears still dominate, making it highly probable that the trend will continue downward, entering a new round of pullback phase.
2. Distribution of key levels and strategy reference
(1) Upward resistance level
1. Primary resistance level: 2448
- Technical characteristics: This position is the upper boundary of the recent price oscillation range, where there are a large number of trapped positions and profit-taking positions. When the Ethereum price rises to this point, selling pressure will significantly increase, becoming the primary obstacle that the short-term rebound needs to overcome.
2. Medium-term resistance level: 2495
- Technical characteristics: Located in a critical moving average suppression area coinciding with key Fibonacci resistance levels, forming strong resistance to price upward movement. To achieve effective breakout, sustained capital inflow and a warming overall market sentiment are required.
3. Trend breakout level: 2535
- Technical characteristics: Once the Ethereum price successfully stabilizes at this level, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, and the subsequent upward space is expected to open further, indicating the arrival of a strong bullish trend.
(2) Downward support level
If the hourly closing price breaks below 2410, it is expected to trigger a new round of pullback, with support levels below being:
1. Primary support level: 2361
- Technical characteristics: Supported by the convergence of short-term moving averages, this is also an important support line that has been tested multiple times, which can alleviate the impact of bear downward pressure to some extent.
2. Secondary support level: 2315
- Technical characteristics: As a strong support level formed by previous price lows, if this level is lost, market panic may intensify, triggering larger-scale sell-offs and leading to accelerated price declines.
3. Strong support level: 2270
- Technical characteristics: This level is in the support area of multiple cycle moving averages and is a key strategic point fiercely contested by both bulls and bears. Its gain or loss directly affects the subsequent short-term and even medium-term trend direction of Ethereum. If it breaks down, it may trigger a deep pullback.
3. Summary
The key to Ethereum's trend today lies in the battle between bulls and bears at the important level of 2410. If the price can effectively stabilize above this level, bulls are expected to challenge the resistance range of 2448 - 2535; if it cannot stabilize, attention should be paid to the risk of the price pulling back to the 2361 - 2270 area. The volatility is intense and uncertainty is high, so it is recommended to closely monitor the changes in the hourly candlestick pattern, strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and reasonably control positions.$ETH
