1. Core assessment of short-term trend
Today's market trend for Bitcoin is critically dependent on the core price level of 103750. The performance of the 4-hour K-line at this price level will become an important basis for judging whether the current pullback market has come to an end.
Bullish confirmation signal
If the 4-hour K-line can effectively hold above 103750, and the subsequent two periods continue to close above this price level, it means that this pullback at the 4-hour level has officially ended, the bulls have regained dominance, and a new round of upward movement may begin, with the market gradually entering an upward channel.
Bearish warning signal
Conversely, if Bitcoin's price consistently fails to hold above 103750 at the 4-hour level, it indicates insufficient rebound momentum at smaller levels, and the bearish forces still hold the upper hand, making it likely for the market to continue in a pullback trend and remain in an adjustment phase.
2. Key point distribution and strategy reference
(1) Upside pressure level
1. First resistance level: 104940
- Technical characteristics: This position is the upper edge of the previous price oscillation range, accumulating a large number of trapped positions and profit-taking positions. When Bitcoin's price rises to this level, the dual selling pressure will directly obstruct short-term upward movement, becoming the first significant checkpoint that the bulls need to overcome.
2. Mid-term pressure level: 105860
- Technical characteristics: Located in the overlapping area of key moving average suppression and important Fibonacci resistance levels, it exerts strong pressure on price upward movement. To achieve effective breakthroughs, not only is sufficient buying capital needed, but also a shift in overall market sentiment towards optimism.
3. Trend breakthrough level: 107100
- Technical characteristics: Once the Bitcoin price successfully stabilizes at this point, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, with substantial upward potential expected, signaling that a new wave of strong upward momentum is about to arrive.
(2) Downside support level
If the 4-hour level fails to hold above 103750, it is expected to trigger a new round of pullback, with the support levels below being:
1. Primary support level: 101710
- Technical characteristics: Formed by the dense intersection of short-term moving averages, this also serves as an important psychological defense line that has been tested multiple times in the past, which can buffer the impact of bearish downward movements to a certain extent.
2. Secondary support level: 100670
- Technical characteristics: As a strong support level formed by previous price lows, if this point is lost, market panic may quickly spread, triggering larger-scale selling behavior and leading to accelerated price declines.
3. Strong support level: 99400
- Technical characteristics: This point is in the support area where multiple cycle moving averages converge, serving as a key strategic position contested by both the bulls and bears. Its loss or gain directly affects the subsequent medium to long-term trend of Bitcoin. Once broken, it may trigger a deep pullback.
3. Summary
The core of Bitcoin's short-term trend lies in the long-short battle at the key point of 103750. If the price can effectively stabilize above this position, the bulls are expected to challenge the resistance in the range of 104940 - 107100; if it cannot hold, one must be wary of the risk of price pulling back to the area of 101710 - 99400, with volatility being intense and filled with uncertainty. It is advised to closely monitor the changes in the 4-hour K-line pattern, strictly execute stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and reasonably control positions.$BTC #BTC挑战11万大关 #BTC走势分析
