Why now is not the time to buy, but a time to think

When the crowd rejoices — I look around

Bitcoin reached $104,000. Victory cries echo from all sides: 'Here it is, the real bull market!', 'Now we're definitely going to $150,000!'. And yet, if you're reading these lines — congratulations, you are one of those who can maintain a clear view in conditions of market euphoria.

Crowd psychology: from hope to greed

Any major rise is always a trigger for mass emotions. Before our eyes, the classic curve of market sentiment unfolds:

  1. Surprise — 'BTC already at 100K? Could it be another bull cycle?'

  2. Confidence — 'ETF, institutions, halving — we're definitely going higher!'

  3. Greed — 'I need to rush in before it's too late!'

  4. Euphoria — a stage where most buy at highs, not seeing the risks

Right now, we are likely between stages 3 and 4. This is exactly where future disappointments are born.

Manipulations that always work

Against the backdrop of news about US-China negotiations, subdued inflation indices, and local conflicts (for example, India-Pakistan), it seems that the market should be trembling. But instead, we see growth. Why?

Because the market is driven by expectations, not facts.
Strong players know how to shape these expectations in advance:

  • launch positive news triggers,

  • push the price up,

  • take profits,

  • leaving the crowd in a trap.

If you feel that 'everyone has started talking about Bitcoin' — it's time to engage critical thinking.

Foundation on sand

The growth of BTC is currently not accompanied by a sustainable improvement in the macroeconomy:

  • The Fed has not yet given a signal for a rate decrease.

  • Inflation, while decreasing, remains unstable.

  • Blockchain volumes and user activity do not correspond to the pace of price growth.

Adding geopolitical factors to this — and we get a market standing on shaky ground. All this can lead to a 'black swan' effect, where a sudden event crashes the market, knocking out those who entered out of inertia.

What to do?

Don't enter the market. Don't believe in endless growth. Don't succumb to crowd pressure.

The best solution right now is to wait. Wait either for:

  • confident consolidation and stabilization,

  • or a reasonable correction to the $48–52K zone, where one can look for purchases with adequate risk.

Bitcoin at $104K — this is not the end, but definitely not the beginning. This is a moment of pause, in which the most foresighted traders ask themselves:
"Isn't this all looking too good to be true?"

If you think differently — share your thoughts. Perhaps you see this growth not as a trap, but as a point of no return. Just bring your arguments to the studio 😉

$BTC