I initially thought that a decrease in the CPI would increase the probability of an interest rate cut in July, but unexpectedly, macro analysts still do not have a positive outlook on this CPI report. The bets in the interest rate swap market indicate that the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped again to 35.9%...
In fact, the logic is quite understandable. The rebound in the CPI due to tariff impacts requires a transmission process. Many American residents are indeed reporting rising prices, and perhaps the next inflation data will provide solid evidence for the speculation of a rate cut in July!