Let's talk about the CPI data. Currently, the market estimates the annual CPI rate to be the same as last month, which is 2.4%. The data provided by the Cleveland Fed is also similar, so the broad CPI is likely still within this range. However, it should be noted that the inflation data for April only includes a small amount of new tariff data.
If the CPI data is lower than expected, it will not trigger any response from the Federal Reserve, as the official tariff details have not yet been finalized. If the CPI data shows a significant increase, it may be interpreted as a result of 'tariff hoarding', especially since the monthly CPI has clearly risen, particularly transitioning from deflation to inflation.
The main reason for this concern is the fear that tariffs have caused many consumers to buy in advance. The core annual and monthly rates follow the same logic.
Therefore, my personal view is that if the data falls below expectations, it might be a slight positive, but it likely won't last long. Conversely, if it exceeds expectations, it might just be a slight negative, and it may not have a significant impact.
As a result, U.S. stocks maintained an upward trend yesterday, showing no intention of hedging. This morning, stock index futures have also only slightly retraced, which should not be considered a hedge. The main reason is that everyone is not too concerned about the current inflation, as they all know that the data the Federal Reserve is looking at is actually the inflation after tariffs, not the inflation before tariffs.