As the market cheers for trade progress, another game quietly unfolds: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut timeline becomes the focus once again. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its expectations for a Fed rate cut to December, while Citigroup has adjusted its forecast from June to July. The 'dovish cooling' from these two major investment banks suggests that the market's urgent expectations for interest rate cuts may need to be revised.

Behind this shift are the recent fluctuations in U.S. inflation data and the resilience of the job market. The market needs to accept a reality—that the rate cut cycle may start later, but once it does, the magnitude may exceed expectations. This logic of 'short pain, long gain' is reshaping the allocation strategies of funds towards risk assets.

Tonight's CPI calibration: the last 'policy lever'. On the evening of May 13, Beijing time, the U.S. April CPI data will soon be revealed. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it could further solidify the narrative of 'inflation retreat', adding fuel to risk assets; conversely, if core inflation remains stubborn, it may exacerbate the uncertainty of the Fed's policy path, triggering market turbulence.

For us, the current market is at a delicate balance of 'optimism and caution': the easing of U.S.-China relations and the rebound of U.S. stocks provide a short-term window for bullish positions, but the Fed's policy rhythm and the independence of the crypto market require a more nuanced layout. Perhaps, as the old saying goes—'Do not fight the trend, but always respect the volatility.'

In the short term, closely following policies and economic data remains key; in the long term, seizing the 'narrative dividend' and liquidity turning points may become the diamond hands that navigate through cycles. In this age of information explosion, maintaining calm and focusing on the main line may be more important than chasing volatility.