After the US and China reached a tariff agreement, why did US stocks rise while BTC fell?
Can BTC continue to rise and reach new highs?
Market logic deduction: Long-short game enters a new phase
1️⃣ The market vacuum period after good news has been fully priced in
The maximum expectation (US-China policy) has been fulfilled, but there is no higher magnitude catalyst to support a breakthrough. Profit-taking has led to a pullback, but URPD data and K-line show that 100,700 forms new support (secondary defensive level 99,000), leading the market into a 'no positive or negative news' oscillation mode.
2️⃣ The failure of gold logic triggers a chain reaction
The trade war has not escalated + recession expectations postponed, weakening BTC's safe-haven narrative. Some funds are withdrawing from gold-related trades, but it should be noted: if CPI unexpectedly weakens, it may restart the safe-haven logic.
3️⃣ Expected difference in rate cut pace speculation
The current market has digested the 'slow rate cut' expectations; the real volatility will come from:
- Federal Reserve dot plot revision (June)
- When the unemployment rate breaks the 4% threshold
4️⃣ Tactical retreat before CPI data
Before today's data release, algorithmic trading triggered risk-off positions. Key dividing line:
Core CPI ≤ 3.4%: Restart risk-on mode
Core CPI ≥ 3.6%: Strengthen the 'higher for longer' narrative
5️⃣ The ultimate speculation on fund rotation
Whether US stock funds can spill over to BTC depends on:
🔸 Are there any obvious signs of a peak in the Nasdaq (e.g., a single-day drop of over 3%)?
Is there still momentum for further increases?
Let's see how the inflation data released tonight plays out; in any case, there is currently no significant negative news.
Tonight's CPI sets the tone: the last 'policy lever'
On the evening of May 13, Beijing time, the US April CPI data is about to be released. If the data meets or falls below expectations, it may further consolidate the narrative of 'falling inflation', adding fuel to risk assets; conversely, if core inflation remains stubborn, it may exacerbate the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path, triggering market volatility.
For us, the current market is at a subtle balance of 'optimism and caution': the easing of US-China relations and the rebound in US stocks provide a short-term long position window, but the Federal Reserve's policy pace and the independence of the crypto market require more refined layouts. Perhaps, as the old saying goes - 'Do not fight against the trend, but always respect volatility.'
In the short term, closely following policies and economic data remains key; in the long term, seizing the 'narrative dividend' and liquidity turning points may become the diamond hands that traverse cycles. In this era of information explosion, staying calm and focusing on the main line may be more important than chasing volatility.
Here’s a thought for buying coins: Coins with large contract open interest.
1. First, if the contract open interest accounts for a high proportion of market value, it indicates ample opposing positions for longs and shorts.
2. The higher the contract open interest exceeds market value, the stronger the market maker, indicating that the market maker has ample chips and strong upward momentum.
3. Because there is ample closing, once it starts to pull up (or crash), the high leverage opposing positions will definitely panic and run, providing fuel for the pull-up.
I prefer coins with large contract open interest like MOODENGE, PNUT, HIPPO, BR, GOAT, SWARMS, VINE.
Finally, I wish everyone happy investing. Let's see how this week performs; most coins have reached resistance levels. Wishing you wealth.
