Today's article is a bit long, please read patiently until the end, with a wealth password attached at the end.
Bitcoin
Currently, Bitcoin is around 104,500, and I believe the shorts are not yet finished. Whether it continues to rally or goes into a deep decline needs to be considered if it rallies further.
In-depth analysis of Bitcoin's market: Is the double kill scenario about to unfold?
Scenario One: Bloody washout before the explosive bull market.
The current market is at a critical turning point; the main force may initiate a 'double kill' to cleanse: first slaughter the shorts to lure in the longs, then counter-attack the chasing longs. Although the MACD shows weakened bullish momentum, the price remains above key moving averages, with 105,000 USD being the dividing line for bulls and bears—breaking through would lead to new highs, while a pullback to 100,000 USD would be healthier.
Scenario Two: The ultimate carnival before interest rate cuts.
Technical and macro factors resonate: If the main force chooses to rally violently before the July interest rate cut, this wave may reach the annual peak. However, beware of 'buying the rumor, selling the news'—when the interest rate cut benefits materialize, it is exactly the day institutions distribute their tokens.
Operational strategy:
- Breaking through 105,000 USD: Chase strong altcoins.
- Pullback to 100,000 USD: Accumulate spot positions in batches.
- Before and after interest rate cuts: Comprehensive defense.
Currently, Ethereum's strategic reserve has reached a historic high of 655,341 ETH, valued at approximately 1.47 billion USD. This strategic reserve is organized by various institutions and projects within the Ethereum ecosystem, and more institutions are continuously joining.
On May 7, Ethereum completed the Pectra network upgrade, followed by this significant strategic reserve news, confirming the previous accusations that the Ethereum Foundation was selling coins to suppress the market while buying coins for reserves. ETF institutions sold tens of thousands, while behind the scenes they were accumulating hundreds of thousands or even more. The foundation publicly sold a few hundred or thousand, but strategically bought back a lot.
Bitfinex E/B giant whales seem to be starting to liquidate Ethereum. A brief review of its pattern: during the building phase, E/B generally experiences a significant surge before liquidation, and after the 'end' of liquidation, it almost always aligns with the peak rates of E/B and ETH/USDT. Today, the holdings of Bitfinex E/B giant whales plummeted. If this high-speed liquidation continues in the coming days, it's time for everyone to pack up and leave.
Secondary market
Ethereum is taking off, and the biggest beneficiaries are certainly the Ethereum ecosystem sectors. The Ethereum series is starting to explode in succession, and everything related to Ethereum is rising, such as ETHFI, IDO, ENA, which are all performing well. I updated this early this morning in the Binance Square, focusing on today's layout.
The Ethereum ecosystem is on the verge of explosion: staking + DeFi tracks may become the next leading sectors.
Three core logical supports for the explosion of ETH ecosystem tokens:
1️⃣ Demand for rebound from oversold conditions: After a long period of FUD suppression, the valuations of the staking and DeFi sectors are at historical lows.
2️⃣ Catalyst approaching: Market expectations are that staking-type ETH will soon announce technical details.
3️⃣ Bull market multiplier effect: In an environment of excessive liquidity, positive news is easily amplified.
SXT value discovery opportunity
Fundamental advantages: Compared to similar new coins INIT/PARTI, SXT has a more solid technical framework.
• Valuation trough: FDV is only 600 million, which is a 50% discount compared to the fully circulated competitor GRT (1.3 billion).
• Airdrop clearance: Recent selling pressure has been fully released, and the technical aspect shows a bottoming pattern.
On-chain:
After recommending this RAT0 yesterday, it spiked to 10 million. Anyway, after buying the dip yesterday, it has definitely tripled by now. Holders of the dirt coins on the E chain can sleep a little easier overnight.
RATO has several good product series MEME, at least four or five of them, with the highest, Berry, reaching a market value of 7 million USD. It seems that the entire RATO ecosystem may be undervalued in the future. Right now, it is expected to reach a market value of 50 million or even higher, with hopes of being listed on the Binance Alpha platform.
