Life and Death Test! 100 Million Dogecoin (DOGE) Unlocking Soon, Is a Plunge Warning Sounding?
In the past five days, Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a surge, with the price skyrocketing from $0.17 to $0.24, an increase of nearly 50%. Open contracts have surpassed $1 billion, marking unprecedented market enthusiasm.
However, over 95.9 million tokens will be unlocked as block rewards from May 12 to 19, which is the largest linear unlocking event in recent times. In the following 30 days, an additional 424 million tokens are set to be released, bringing significant uncertainty to the market.
Although the unlocked tokens only account for 0.06% of the total circulating supply, at a sensitive moment when DOGE is about to break the resistance level of $0.24, selling pressure may intensify volatility.
Historical data shows that after Elon Musk's tweet propelled DOGE to a high of $0.73 in 2021, it plummeted sharply. Will this unlocking repeat the same fate?
It is noteworthy that the market is experiencing intense long and short battles: on one hand, unlocking usually triggers a wave of sell-offs; on the other hand, whales continue to accumulate, creating a counterbalance—over 100 million DOGE were absorbed by whale groups at the end of April, and recently, tokens worth $148 million have been transferred.
Analyst Trader Tardigrade remains optimistic, pointing out that the weekly MACD has shown a bullish crossover, and the DOGE/BTC trend is exhibiting a classic pattern reminiscent of a historical surge of 30,000%, stating that "the sideways BTC may boost DOGE significantly."
