After the temporary agreement on tariffs between China and the United States was reached, the probability of an interest rate cut in July has decreased again... Currently, it is only 38.5%... While the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in July has reached 57.4%... This probability distribution is expected to change again after the CPI is announced today. Since the FOMC after July will not convene until September, if there is no rate cut in July, the earliest time for a rate cut will be directly postponed to September...
We are back to the path of two rate cuts within the year. Although the agreement reached between China and the United States yesterday is positive, it has also prolonged the possibility of a rate cut. What new expectations remain for positive outlooks? We can only wait and see. You say it will immediately drop sharply, but that shouldn't be the case, after all, there are no negative factors.
