In this round of price increase, the vast majority of people in the spot market have missed out. It’s normal to miss out on this kind of left-side rebound market. What’s strange is that in this round, I haven’t seen anyone regret missing out, and everyone’s reaction has been muted. There hasn’t been any FOMO sentiment; could it be that people are numb to blockchain now?
From the data, it can also be seen that contract trading is predominant, and the data has been very stable. The spot market has at least a few times the gap compared to contracts; historically, the trading volume of contracts is usually greater than that of spot trading, but the gap over the past month or two has been very pronounced. The data for spot trading shows significant fluctuations, clearly impacted by price. Spot trading has only seen a noticeable increase today, with the trend clearly growing since March, and on the day with the highest volume in May, the contract trading volume was nearly 14 times that of spot trading. Recently, the notable increases in the spot market have almost all been in the ETH sector, particularly the ETH liquid staking Ethfi, which has doubled in a week, including the underperforming Layer 2 networks.
The rest are still dominated by MEME coins. Market sentiment has yet to pick up; normally, when the market hasn't reached FOMO, it tends to choose an upward trend. However, the position is too high and without a pullback, participation is difficult. Most of the missed-out funds will first choose altcoins. Currently, BTC is only 6.6% away from its historical high; if it continues to rise, there will be an opportunity for altcoins, though it may not necessarily be an altcoin season, but there will be good increases. Technically, many altcoins have already formed bottoming patterns.
From another perspective, looking at the Shanhai Index, it can also be seen. The index has already formed a bottom structure. The last time it formed a bottom structure was during the wave of increase that started in November last year, when this index was also referenced to buy into altcoins. However, the market background during the rise in November and December last year was different, as the expectations for altcoins were much stronger than now. Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. April unadjusted CPI year-on-year will be announced, with an expectation of 2.4%.
