Yesterday, a major news hit the market — the US and China reached a joint statement: mutual 10% tariffs within the next 90 days, with no escalation of conflict for now. This 'ceasefire' agreement quickly broke the previous market uncertainty, directly igniting the crypto market. As soon as the good news landed, mainstream coins soared. Bitcoin briefly surged to $106,000, and Ethereum broke the $2,600 mark. The exchange chat instantly exploded, and the crypto circle seemed to enter a small 'carnival.'
However, the brief hot market only lasted about two hours, after which the market quickly cooled down, with several mainstream coins giving back their gains and entering a period of fluctuation.
Don't worry, it's just a technical correction.
On-chain data has long been a preventive measure: with a 24% increase over the past 30 days, new buyers are strong, but momentum funds are starting to weaken, so short-term profit-taking is bound to happen.
The financing rate has long exceeded standards, with long positions leveraging up, and after a short squeeze, a washout is naturally needed. The crash script from early this morning is a textbook 'risk control action before the CPI data is released.'
From perpetual contracts to spot ETFs, and then to strategies, the actions of the 'main players' increasing their positions do not seem like a top signal at all. On the contrary, it looks like a typical — 'technical fakeout + news-driven exaggeration.'
Looking at more data: The US spot BTC ETF had inflows of $2 billion in the 9 days before May, and Strategy just bought 13,390 BTC, bringing their holdings to 568,000 BTC, which accounts for 6% of the circulating supply.
Is this called a top? Old Yuan can only smile. The real top is when no one is worried about the top.
Is the US-China agreement a good thing or a hidden danger?
In fact, this agreement is just a '90-day ceasefire'; both sides are exhausted from the trade war and just need to catch their breath. The key point is that there is a hidden danger: if no agreement is reached in 90 days, tariffs will directly jump by 24%. The Trump team's history of going back on their word is considerable, and market funds are wary of staying in; it's better to secure profits first.
Currently, the main battlefield for altcoins is still memes, but signs of rotation have already emerged. Following the favorable wind of the US-China agreement, BTC is likely to push up, and altcoins will definitely benefit. Take Pnut as an example; coins in the same sector are jumping in price, and even if it performs poorly, it should still rise by 50%, right? Optimistically, this wave could last until the next interest rate cut, but remember the nature of altcoins: they rise sharply but fall even faster. If you make 3-5 times your investment, you should withdraw in batches; don't be foolishly hopeful for 100 times. New coins are appearing like dumplings, and there aren't enough new investors to take over; if you don't take profits in time, you'll inevitably end up on guard.
How will the market move next? The general direction still needs to reference the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks.
Referencing the script of three interest rate cuts in 2024: the first cut of 50 basis points in September pulled Bitcoin from $54,000 to $66,000; the second cut of 25 basis points in November surged it directly to $93,000; and the third cut broke $100,000 in December — although this time it's a favorable tariff situation, the logic is consistent: liquidity easing is the engine of the crypto circle. We retail investors shouldn't overthink it; let's seize this 90-day window and make some profits, then take what we can get, which is better than anything else.
Finally, pay attention to this week's important nodes:
Today at 20:30, the CPI data will be released.
On Thursday at 20:30, the PPI data will be released.
These two data points show inflation trends, which have a certain impact on the crypto circle.
However, last time the CPI was bearish for BTC but did not cause a significant drop, so next week's data will have limited impact.
