Despite the favorable market conditions, the market has actually declined.
Q: Will it continue to fall?
A: In the short term, the bullish liquidity below has not yet reached the liquidation threshold, meaning the magnetic force is not strong enough, so the probability of a rebound and consolidation is relatively high;
Q: Where is the target for the rebound?
A: If the price continues to oscillate above 102k, it may still ultimately liquidate the remaining short liquidity at high levels, which means a slight new high around 106k, but the fuel for sustained growth is still insufficient and will require oscillation to accumulate slowly;
Q: So you are expecting oscillation?
A: Yes, first looking at oscillation. Both upward and downward liquidity are insufficient, so we can only define a range of oscillation of 100600~106600, which is a 6000-dollar range.
Q: How should we judge the direction of tonight's CPI data?
A: If the CPI data is lower than expected, coupled with rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, Bitcoin may quickly recover above 105,000 and challenge the 120,000 mark. Institutional accumulation and ETF inflows will build a "moat," lowering the probability of falling below 100,000 to less than 20%.
If the CPI rebounds and strengthens the dollar, BTC may test the support level of 97,000-99,000. However, MicroStrategy's $21 billion capital increase provides it with "ammunition," and the selling pressure from long-term holders is limited. After a pullback, it may enter a consolidation range of 90,000-110,000.
