The most critical day of the week, the inflation data CPI is here! Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates based on this? Is it bullish or bearish for Bitcoin?
Currently, Wall Street's expectation is to maintain the status quo, which is a good signal because the market is very concerned about additional inflation caused by tariffs, but the tariffs have already been implemented. Will there really be no impact?
The impact of tariffs has actually begun, but Wall Street's expectation of no change is because the price of weighted crude oil has plummeted. In April, crude oil was around $62, a significant drop from last April's price of $80, which greatly offsets the inflation impact of tariffs.
After reviewing some analysts' views on Wall Street, I believe there is a 65% chance that this data will be neither good nor bad, meeting expectations, 25% chance of rising inflation, which is bearish, and 10% chance of falling inflation, which is bullish. This data has a lot of variables and is quite difficult to predict. However, based on past experience, the CPI generally has a higher probability of meeting expectations, and the tariffs have caused a potential rise in inflation, which should be noted.
In a little while, we can start planning for tonight.
There is still an opportunity now.
