#贸易战缓和 1. Economic Pressure Drives Temporary Compromise

High inflation in the U.S. (CPI up 5.8% year-on-year) and worsening supply chain crises have forced the Trump administration to adjust tariff policies. China has weakened the effectiveness of U.S. unilateral pressure by deepening trade cooperation with ASEAN and the Middle East (exports to ASEAN increased by 22%). Both sides face a balancing act between economic rationality and political maneuvering, with U.S. businesses calling for policy adjustments due to surging tariff costs (73% of businesses report increased operating costs).

2. Negotiation Progress and Core Differences

The May talks in Switzerland reached a consensus on establishing a consultation mechanism and partial tariff reductions (from 145% to 50-54%), but structural contradictions (such as technology decoupling and market opening) remain divisive. The U.S. is attempting to ease consumer pressure by exempting essential goods (such as medical equipment), while China insists on removing all unilateral tariffs and maintaining the WTO multilateral framework.

3. Short-term Opportunities and Long-term Challenges

In the short term, tariff easing provides a window for China's cross-border e-commerce (such as Temu), and U.S. consumer price pressures have temporarily eased, but supply chain localization leads to a decline in product diversity. Long-term, there are risks of policy reversals (contradictory signals from Trump) and rule conflicts (digital trade, green standards). The global trade pattern is accelerating its restructuring, with Southeast Asia becoming a "buffer zone," and the trend of decoupling in technology fields (semiconductors, AI) remains unchanged.

Summary

This easing is a tactical compromise between China and the U.S. under election cycles and economic pressure, but the core contradictions of the trade war remain unresolved. Chinese enterprises need to accelerate technological upgrades and market diversification, while the resilience of global supply chains will become a key factor in competition.