$BTC 1. Current Price and Short-Term Trend

Price Range Fluctuation: Bitcoin is currently quoted at approximately $104,000-$104,800, in a consolidation phase between $103,500-$105,000. It briefly tested the resistance level at $105,000 before retreating, with key support forming at $103,000-$103,500.

Technical Signals:

Neutral to Bearish Short-Term Indicators: 1-hour MACD shows a death cross, RSI has fallen to 48 (edge of neutral zone), EMA7 has crossed below EMA30, indicating short-term pullback pressure.

Long-Term Bullish Foundation: The daily chart still maintains a consecutive green candle trend, EMA moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, and institutional funds continue to flow in (e.g., ETF net inflow of $5.3 billion in a single week) supporting long-term trends.

2. Key Support and Resistance

Support Levels:

$103,000-$103,500 (EMA50 moving average + previous low accumulation zone);

$102,800 (EMA120 moving average support).

Resistance Levels:

$105,000 (Fibonacci extension + round number resistance);

$106,405 (previous high resistance level).

3. Market Sentiment and Fund Dynamics

Sentiment Divergence: Market sentiment indicator reaches 78% risk red line, indicating short-term overheating risk, but institutional accumulation (e.g., BlackRock, MicroStrategy, etc.) and expectations for 'inflation hedging' still support confidence.

Fund Flow: Bitcoin ETF scale has surpassed $118 billion, miners' sell-off volume has dropped to a low level, alleviating long-term selling pressure.