This morning's Geneva talks between China and the U.S. released optimistic signals.
From May 10 to 11, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. were held in Geneva, Switzerland. The Chinese delegation stated at a press conference that both sides had in-depth exchanges on economic and trade issues, with a frank, deep, and constructive atmosphere, achieving substantial progress and important consensus. Both sides agreed to establish a China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism, clarify leaders, and further negotiate on concerned issues. Details will be finalized soon, with a joint statement from the talks expected to be released on May 12.
Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade in Sydney, stated, 'If the U.S. and China mutually lower tariff levels, it will greatly alleviate concerns about global economic growth in the second half of the year.'
On May 12, Trump stated he would sign a far-reaching executive order at the White House, implementing 'most favored nation' policies to make the U.S. pay the same prices as countries with the lowest drug prices globally, aiming to solve the issue of high drug prices in the U.S. It is expected that prescription drug prices will drop immediately by 30% to 80%, and global drug prices will rise to balance this, bringing fairness to the U.S. for the first time in years.
Remarks from various Federal Reserve officials:
Barkin: If inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously, the Federal Reserve may face difficulties.
Kugler: The labor market may be approaching full employment; Barkin: Not all companies can raise prices due to tariffs.
Waller: The independent structure of the Federal Reserve has proven its value.
Bostic: Adjusting policy in the face of increasing uncertainty is unwise.
Harmack: There are compelling reasons to maintain stable monetary policy.
Musalem: No commitment to rate cuts should be made until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clear.
Cook: Tariff policies may reduce productivity, constrain potential output, and increase inflationary pressures.
Powell offered two reasons for not rushing. First, waiting incurs no actual cost. Second, 'We are not sure what the right course of action is, and what would make more sense.'
Some economists believe that the unique challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in achieving full employment and low inflation make it difficult for Powell.
Many believe Powell has no choice but to do nothing for now in the absence of more clear information.
Federal Reserve officials: A standing repo facility (SRF) routine operation is coming soon.
Tariff progress:
U.S. Secretary of Commerce: A 10% baseline tariff will continue to exist for the foreseeable future.
India is requesting the U.S. to exempt tariffs and proposing to narrow the tariff gap; von der Leyen mentioned the possibility of a trade agreement visit to the U.S.
German Chancellor Merz hopes the U.S. will offer 'zero tariffs' to the EU.
Vietnam accuses Trump of unreasonable tariffs, while the U.S. will give the UK preferential treatment on drug tariffs.
Switzerland and the U.S. held 'constructive' negotiations to sign an agreement, and the Japanese Prime Minister plans to promote tariff agreement negotiations in July.
Evening focus:
At 22:25, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech. Previously, Kugler emphasized that the current policy interest rate is moderately restrictive, suggesting it will remain unchanged.
As trade negotiations among countries are scheduled, the two major powers, China and the U.S., made effective progress after two days of in-depth talks, which is undoubtedly significant good news in recent times, bringing new hope to institutions and investors. The trade war is no longer an indestructible burden on people's minds, and market optimism is rising, driving global economic growth.
If good news continues, Bitcoin is expected to challenge 110,000 this week. If Ethereum maintains its strong performance from the end of last week, we can expect the arrival of the 3,000 mark. However, attention should still be paid to key data reports this week, especially regarding the Federal Reserve's movements and interest rate cut expectations.
After several rounds of upward movement in the market over the weekend, Bitcoin has broken through the short-term resistance level of 105,000 this morning, and Yumi is conducting a retreat strategy.
For the medium to long term, upward pressure is seen at 108,000/2800, with support at 100,000/2200.
There is still a wave of short-term corrections, the afternoon retreat continues.
For Bitcoin, looking at 105,000 in the range of 103,500-103,800.
Expecting 2600 for the range 2480-2500.
