Extreme greed signals are collectively lighting up

Ethereum daily RSI value breaks 87.5, hitting the highest record since the bubble period in November 2021. On-chain data reveals dangerous combinations:

  1. Exchange ETH balance surged by 230,000 coins in one day (valued at $590 million)

  2. Whale addresses holding over 10,000 coins decreased by 7 in three days

  3. Deribit option volatility surface is inverted, with put option premiums reaching a monthly peak

This is by no means a normal rise but a typical bull trap construction period. When the market sentiment index reaches the 'extreme greed' threshold, historical data shows an average pullback of 19.8% in the following 30 days.

Institutional dark battles have revealed killing intent

CME Ethereum futures show strange divergence: prices hit new highs while open contracts sharply decrease by 64%, which usually indicates market makers are withdrawing liquidity. A more dangerous signal comes from miners — the top 20 mining pool addresses in the entire network have continuously transferred ETH to exchanges for 6 hours, with single transfers exceeding 5,000 coins triggering risk control alerts.

Key price level battle intensifies:
▷ $2600 defense line gathers $370 million worth of put options
▷ $2350 position is hiding $120 million worth of long stop-loss orders
▷ $2600-2650 range has $840 million worth of short futures positions

Hedging strategy lifeline

Chasing rises at this moment is like dancing on the edge of a knife; professional funds are building defenses through three layers:

  1. Volatility arbitrage: Buy $2600 put options to hedge spot positions

  2. Cross-market linkage: Long BTC/ETH exchange rate hedge to mitigate Ethereum's downside risk

  3. Time difference attack: Layout quarterly contracts with positive basis (current premium 2.3%) to lock in profits

Trader's Memo

  • Breakout warning: A closing price below $2550 for two consecutive hours on the hourly chart will trigger programmatic selling

  • Leverage death zone: Perpetual contract funding rate exceeding 0.15% requires immediate reduction

  • Black swan defense line: Retain 30% stablecoins to cope with potential liquidation cascades

(When everyone cheers at the rising prices, the wise are calculating safe exit routes)

The market is turbulent at the moment; walking alone is lonely. Follow me for daily spot potential layouts and bull market strategy layouts.

$ETH

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