Understand the negotiation of the century in three hours
Ice-breaking signal: The secret negotiations in Geneva broke the five-year deadlock, and the 10-hour long consultations created the first substantial results in three years. Capital voted with its feet - the offshore RMB soared 400 basis points in a single day, and Chinese stocks started the carnival mode ahead of schedule
Game Focus
Tariff red line: Behind the rumor of the US tariff increase from 145% to 34%, there is a trillion-dollar reconstruction of the new energy industry chain
Technology secret war: Behind the unusual movement of the semiconductor equipment sector is the life-and-death race between domestic substitution and export control
Capital undercurrent: BlackRock and Bridgewater increased their holdings in China's technology ETF three months in advance, and smart money has already laid out the chess game
Wealth Migration Roadmap
Technological Revolution: AI computing clusters attracted over 8 billion yuan in a single week, and Cambrian and Sugon were swept up by northbound funds
Exchange rate window: Cross-border capital is pouring in through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, and the Hang Seng Technology Index's monthly bottom divergence is confirmed
Risk aversion recedes: Institutional gold ETFs sell off $2.3 billion, and quantitative private equity firms turn to stock index CTA strategies
Capital plays out three scenarios
Optimistic scenario (35% probability): The negotiation mechanism becomes normalized, the technological blockade is relaxed, and the semiconductor industry chain welcomes valuation reconstruction
Neutral expectation (probability 50%): The tariff war turns into a technology war, domestic substitution accelerates, and industrial mother machines + information innovation start the main upward trend
Risk scenario (probability 15%): Sudden sanctions before the US election, biopharmaceutical + CXO sectors may be targeted
Core Data
The interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed to -78 basis points. Foreign capital made net purchases for six consecutive days, setting a record for the year. After the negotiations, the 24-hour options market bet that the volatility of the CSI 300 would drop by 42%.
The essence of this game between major countries is the ultimate contest between industrial upgrading and financial pricing power. When the Chinese component stocks of Nasdaq surged 8% in a single day and when the RMB exchange rate broke through the key technical level, those who understood the game had already laid a trap in the K-line.
