Analysis of US Stock Index Futures Movements: The Market Logic Behind Accelerating Risk Appetite
During the Asian trading session, the three major US stock index futures strengthened simultaneously, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures leading the way with a 4.2% increase, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly five months.
This collective movement is not an isolated incident; the technical oversold rebound resonates with the fundamental expectation correction:
The unexpected cooling of the October CPI data triggered a shift in monetary policy trading, with federal funds rate futures indicating a 25 basis point decrease in interest rate hike expectations for 2023.
The valuation repair momentum in the tech sector is strong, with buying volumes for major stocks like Apple and Nvidia increasing by 180% compared to the previous day, and the proportion of call options in the options market rising to an extreme level of 68%.
Funds in the bond market are rapidly migrating towards equity assets, with the ten-year US Treasury yield declining by 14 basis points in a single day, marking the largest drop since March 2020.
The current market has entered a typical "expectation-driven" phase, and it is advisable to focus on three major structural opportunities:
Interest rate-sensitive tech growth stocks
Multinational companies benefiting from a weaker dollar
Quality Chinese concept stocks that have been mispriced
However, it is necessary to remain cautious as the VIX fear index is still above the 25 alert line, and volatility strategies should maintain dynamic hedging.
