BTC Daily Trend Analysis
The big coin is currently balancing at $104,000 for short positions, with three dimensions to help you avoid the scythe.
1. The market hides the "false breakout" killing intent
The price is repeatedly testing the $103,800-$105,000 range, with the BOLL upper band at $106,200 acting as a high-pressure line, and trading volume has shrunk to 75% of yesterday's. The MACD red bars are turning negative, with DIF and DEA about to cross, and RSI has soared to the overbought zone at 75—this combination is more dangerous than a firecracker tied to your pants. The key support below has moved up to $101,500; breaking it would lead straight into the "don’t run, fellow townsman" drama.
2. The news performs a "ice-fire trio"
Good news: ① BlackRock ETF saw a net inflow of $480 million this week; ② Texas Bitcoin reserve bill passed initial review, with annual buying expectations of $5 billion.
Bad news: ① Trump will announce a trade agreement at 10 PM tonight, increasing the risk of verbal attacks; ② 28,000 BTC options expire tonight, with a maximum pain point at $95,000; ③ German regulators raid exchanges, freezing $120 million in assets.
3. Tonight's script probability reset
Violent breakthrough: A volume breakout above $105,500 requires institutions to throw in another $300 million.
False breakout washout: Lure to $105,000 before a flash crash to $101,000, classic "please step into the trap" by the market makers.
Black swan chaos: Fed officials speak hawkishly in the early morning, causing a direct crash to $97,500.
Sideways waiting for CPI: Fluctuating between $103,000-$105,000, waiting for the data on Wednesday to determine fate.
Veteran's life-saving guide
Hold coin party: Move the stop loss up to $101,500; cut losses immediately if broken.
Bottom fishers: Prepare three batches of bullets at $100,500/$98,000/$96,000; try light positions using Mr. Coin's strategy.
Contract dogs: Place orders for $600 buffer when the U.S. stock market opens at 21:00.
Finally, a splash of cold water
The current market is like a firecracker with a lit fuse—sounds loud, but can explode and break teeth.
Focus on two key things:
1. Trump's speech at 22:00 may lead to a collapse in sentiment.
2. The on-chain whale 0x5c3 transferred 8,900 BTC to Binance; this action is more exciting than the dealer's hole cards.
Are you stuck? When to buy the dip? As always, if you feel lost and don't know what to do, click on my avatar to comment. I need followers, and you need references.
Intraday focus: ETH BTC LAYER PNUT
