BTC Breakout!! A Practical Breakdown for Seasoned Investors
In a bull market, don't let the false moves of market makers confuse you!
1. Current Market Situation: Bears are setting up at the Bollinger Band ceiling
Current BTC is stuck near the upper Bollinger Band around 105,000, consistent with the script of three failed highs in the past six months. The upper Bollinger Band acts as a resistance level, and the probability of a price retracement after touching it is extremely high at 67. The MACD death cross at high levels further confirms the retracement signal, similar to the 'trend reversal precursor' indicated by the MACD Bollinger indicators on July 2, 2024.
2. Core of Breakout: Position Management Lifeline
Heavy positions trapped above 102,000:
Stop adding to positions! The current price is only 1,000 away from the middle Bollinger Band at 103,000, and blindly adding to positions may lead to a second trap at 6. Move your stop loss: If it drops below the middle band at 103,000, immediately cut 20% of your position, leaving some capital to wait for a bottom at the 98,000-100,000 range, which serves as strong support from the March 2025 retracement.
Light position cost below 98,000:
Lay flat strategy: Maintain the psychological level of 100,000 to hold assets; refer to the rebound case from the Bollinger Bands and MACD resonance on June 24, 2024 at 7. Timing for adding positions: If it drops to the lower Bollinger Band at 98,000, use 10% of your funds to add to your position, and sell at 105,000 to reduce costs, avoiding excessive exposure to risk.
3. Main Tactics Correction: Volume-Price Divergence + News Double Kill
Market makers' recent tactics have upgraded:
False breakout trap: On April 25 and May 8, there were two instances of low-volume pullbacks to 106,000, with MACD volume bars continuously shrinking, consistent with the 'false prosperity' characteristics analyzed on May 6, 2025.
News coordination: Using events like the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to sell off, such as the sudden hawkish remarks on May 10 leading to a flash crash to 95,000, aligns with the 'event-driven volatility' logic indicated by the MACD Bollinger indicators on July 2, 2024.
Operations:
If it rapidly breaks 106,000, reduce 1/2 of your position, as this level has been a false breakout point three times this year at 6.
Stop loss at the middle band of 103,000; wait for the 98,000-100,000 grid to accumulate shares gradually.
A second golden cross on MACD + stabilizing at the middle band is a true reversal signal; do not heavily invest before that.
Are you stuck? When should you buy the dip? As always, if you're confused and helpless and don't know what to do, tap on my avatar to comment. I need fans, and you need references.
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