Market fluctuations are like the rise and fall of tides. Experienced traders who have gone through roller coaster markets understand: seizing the end of adjustments is often more important than predicting tops and bottoms. Here are a few effective observation dimensions I've personally tested, and I suggest viewing them dialectically in conjunction with your own experience.

I. Three common pullback patterns

  1. ​​Sudden drop and rise type​​
    Rapid drop followed by a quick rebound, with weekly candles often leaving long lower shadows, combined with two consecutive bullish candles wrapping a bearish candle, resembling a powerful rebound after a spring has been compressed to the limit

  2. ​​Horizontal consolidation type​​
    Price oscillates back and forth within a fixed range. When trading volume drops to a recent low, a three consecutive bullish breakout of the range is like a long-held balloon suddenly bursting

  3. ​​Stair-step upward type​​
    Each pullback low is higher than the previous one, and the breakout is accompanied by significant volume. This pattern often indicates a stronger offensive

II. Four key judgment indicators

① Energy conversion signals
When the MACD green energy bars start to shorten, the RSI indicator turns upward from below 30, and the trading volume reduces to about 30% of its peak, a change in trend is often brewing

② Chart breakout verification
A W-shaped double bottom breaks through the neckline, a head and shoulders bottom pattern breaks through with volume, and when a triangle pattern is at the end of consolidation choosing a direction, a true breakout requires trading volume to be at least 1.5 times the average volume

③ Trend line matching
When the 4-hour level breaks the downward channel, and important moving averages (like the 55-day moving average) provide effective support, pay attention when the 5-day moving average crosses above the 10-day moving average

④ Key ratio positions
Focus on the 61.8% and 38.2% retracement levels, which are more reliable when combined with long lower shadows or large bullish candles. For example, in a certain market, after a single needle bottoming at the 61.8% position, a new wave segment began.

III. Practical experience sharing

In a typical market last year:

  1. Price retraces to around 38.2% from a certain key level

  2. The daily chart shows two long lower shadows probing for a bottom

  3. Volume doubles when breaking the downward trend line

  4. Capital flow indicators continue to improve
    The insight from this wave of market: the synchronous verification of volume, shape, and indicators is more trustworthy

IV. Operating precautions

  1. Multi-timeframe comparison observation (daily direction > 4-hour shape > 1-hour buy/sell points)

  2. Operate in batches at important positions, setting a floating range of 3%-5% in advance

  3. Be wary of volume-less breakouts and false signals of rapid pullbacks

  4. Maintain a stable mindset and avoid emotional chasing of trades

Personal insight: Market adjustments are essentially a process of capital reallocation. By observing changes in volume, pattern construction, and indicator recovery, one can more rationally judge the probability of trend continuation. Remember, there are no 100% accurate signals; managing positions and risk plans is more important.

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