Recently, I discovered an interesting phenomenon: whenever the prices of mainstream digital assets reach new highs, there is always a question of "why don't innovative coins follow the rise?" This reminds me of the dormant period of ETH in 2017 and the eve of the DeFi concept explosion in 2021—history always repeats similar cyclical logic.
【Analysis of the Four-Dimensional Cycle Law】
Capital Tide Law
Market funds, like a reservoir, always follow the transmission path of "core assets → mainstream assets → innovative projects." The current phase resembles the baton handover phase of a relay race, with new funds continuously flowing into core targets.
❶ Market Dominance Rotation
Observing the cycle data from 2013-2024, the explosive growth of innovative assets requires two conditions to be met:
√ Core asset market capitalization ratio breaks through the 65% warning line
√ Core asset weekly chart shows more than three top divergences
The current market is in the observation period after the first condition is met
❷ Valuation Reconstruction Window
The current calm period for innovative coins is essentially a process of reconstructing value gaps. Referring to the market trend from November 2017 to January 2018, when the monthly RSI of core assets breaks through 80, innovative coins begin to show exponential catch-up.
❸ Liquidity Transmission Lag
Newly entering funds often choose the most consensus targets. When the daily turnover rate of core assets breaks through 25% (currently at 18.6%), the spillover effect will truly manifest.
❹ Emotional Cycle Mismatch
Market sentiment has a typical "cognitive time lag": institutional investors' positioning period → retail investors' follow-up period → missed funds' replenishment period. Currently, it is transitioning from the second to the third phase.
【Wise Saying】
In this game that requires patience, remember two things:
1️⃣ Leaving too early and entering too late are equally dangerous.
2️⃣ True excess returns often arise amidst skepticism.
Those old players who held onto ETH in 2018 ultimately reaped a 200-fold return.
Blindly going solo will never bring opportunities, follow me for insights into tenfold potential coins! Top-tier resources!
