Against the backdrop of Bitcoin confidently surpassing the psychological mark of $100,000, one might expect fireworks, enthusiasm, and universal "FOMO." However, my position remains unchanged: I do not buy at these levels — moreover, I consider current prices excessively overheated. This is not just an emotion, but a conclusion drawn from a careful analysis of fundamental and behavioral factors.
1. Bitcoin as a bubble: what causes overheating
The concept of a "bubble" is not an emotional cliche, but an economic term. Last autumn, I already noted the anomalous rates of BTC price growth, which did not correlate with the fundamental activity of the network, the number of unique wallets, or the growth of the real user base.
We are currently observing all signs of an overheated asset:
Unstoppable vertical movement without serious pullbacks and consolidations.
Aggressive inflows from institutions, often coinciding with key phases of retail interest.
Growth against the backdrop of "positive" news, which is not always confirmed by subsequent strengthening.
2. Manipulations and traps: history repeats itself
I have mentioned bullish traps more than once — sharp spikes upwards, provoking retail investors to enter the market at the most dangerous moments. At the same time, large capital usually starts to take profits.
Analyzing market behavior over the last cycle, one can notice how the same patterns repeat:
First — a wave of institutional news (ETFs, investments from large funds, integrations).
Then — a massive media campaign stimulating retail demand.
Finally — profit-taking at the peak, accompanied by a rapid dump and mass "sticking" of new buyers.
3. Why buying now is a mistake
$101,000 — not the time for euphoria. This is the time for cold reason.
At such levels, the market becomes maximally vulnerable to external shocks. Any negative news — whether it’s geopolitics, regulation, unexpected profit-taking — can become a trigger.
That’s why my strategy is simple:
I do not buy at market price.
I wait for a correction or confirmation of a new stable range.
I do not recommend entering the market without clear risk management and an understanding that volatility can return instantly.
4. Crowd psychology — the main indicator
Paradoxically, it is precisely when everyone starts to believe in infinite growth that one must be particularly cautious. Financial bubbles are often inflated by faith rather than by data. Once faith disappears — so do the capitals.
Right now, I observe how many players are "chasing the train." But I remind you: trains that leave at the peak most often return empty.
My opinion
I remain out of the market at current levels. For me, the BTC price above $100,000 is a high-risk zone, but not one of opportunities. If the market gives a reasonable pullback — I will consider it. For now, I am observing. And I recommend all readers not to lose their heads at the moment when others have already lost theirs.
If you think I’m wrong — correct me in the comments. Perhaps you see in the current BTC rally a new era of stability, not an overheated bubble. I am always open to constructive dialogue and alternative views on the market.