"Ball" Powell, what exactly do you want to do???
Central banks around the world are busy cutting interest rates, but the Federal Reserve is standing still. Powell emphasized "wait" 22 times at the press conference, revealing the Fed's determination not to rush into rate cuts. This is not the Fed intentionally "going against the trend," but rather a pitfall created by Trump's tariff policy: if they cut rates too early, it could trigger a new round of inflation; if they delay too long, they might miss the turning point of an economic recession.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will start a series of three rate cuts as early as July, while JPMorgan believes it could be postponed until September. I personally think the probability of a rate cut in June is only between 20%-30%. The Fed will only take action early if the job market deteriorates rapidly (non-farm payroll drops below 100,000) or inflation falls quickly below 2%.
For the market, a rate cut by the Fed is the core catalyst for starting the imitation season. In the short term, the BTC price will likely maintain high volatility, but once a clear signal of a rate cut appears in June, market sentiment will quickly turn optimistic, and the altcoin may see a rapid rise, ushering in a new round of upward momentum. Right now, the best approach is to closely monitor the changes in non-farm payroll and CPI data over the next few months, prepare in advance + hold spot positions, rather than waiting to enter the market after the actual rate cut announcement and chasing high prices.
(Full article - Market Outlook can be found in the long article on my personal homepage)
