柴老板chailaoban185
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
3.9 Years
毕业于新加坡南洋理工-金融科技硕士MSc in Financial Technology，分支专业：Intelligent Process Automation (IPA) ，专业研投，技术分析，数据流，技术教学，身居海外，多年投资经验，非野鸡，非自学，正统金融出身。本硕均就读于南洋理工NTU
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Position management - the secret to escape from being a leek
80% of the teachers in the square are just talking nonsense, and the remaining 10% are pure leeks
Without position management, stop loss, and just mindlessly holding orders, how can it be called trading?
If I really like playing like this, I might as well buy lottery tickets... The ugly profit and loss ratio, the unattainable previous high stop-profit, and the fact that I can make money is purely luck, not trading.
Only by learning position management can you be called a qualified trader, always remember this
What is a transaction?
In contract trading, position management is as important as a man’s penis.
What is "trading"? The so-called trading is actually to make profits from the market by relying on one's own understanding of the market, using a high winning rate and high profit-loss ratio, and taking risks through opening and closing positions again and again.
Without position management, stop loss, and just mindlessly holding orders, how can it be called trading?
If I really like playing like this, I might as well buy lottery tickets... The ugly profit and loss ratio, the unattainable previous high stop-profit, and the fact that I can make money is purely luck, not trading.
Only by learning position management can you be called a qualified trader, always remember this
What is a transaction?
In contract trading, position management is as important as a man’s penis.
What is "trading"? The so-called trading is actually to make profits from the market by relying on one's own understanding of the market, using a high winning rate and high profit-loss ratio, and taking risks through opening and closing positions again and again.
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No rate cuts!!! Wait another three months!!!
On May 30, 2025 — This Friday (May 30) at 20:30 Eastern Time, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Price Index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator. The market generally expects the PCE to show a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% in April, with the year-on-year rate dropping to 2.2%, while the core PCE remains high at 2.6% year-on-year. The market expects almost 'zero rate cut' for the June interest rate meeting, but the possibility of the first rate cut in September has begun to brew. This round of policy direction is closely related to the future trend of digital gold, Bitcoin (BTC).
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neiro Life and Death Line, a thin line between heaven and earth
After neiro peaked at 0.0007 on May 14, it showed weakness, dropping all the way down to 0.0004 before rebounding to 0.00065, and then continuing to decline. According to the chart, there are a large number of sell orders clustered around 0.00065-0.0007. These sell orders, based on on-chain data, show that most of the selling pressure comes from traders holding for over 90 days, which brings strong selling pressure from trapped positions at the top, particularly evident at this price level.
Currently, the daily view of neiro is not optimistic. The potential double top on the daily chart has led to a significant amount of short selling from short-term traders, becoming a strong pressure on neiro aside from the trapped positions. However, it appears that the last decline did not break below the 50% of the upward range and has formed a double bottom rebound, indicating that there are still continuous new traders and whales entering the market. At this point, whether neiro can return to the bullish momentum of the previous bull market crucially depends on one key level: around 0.0004. If it breaks below the double top neckline at 0.0004, the daily double top will form, and the strong selling pressure and long position stop losses will crush neiro's bullish defense line, which may lead to a risk of retracing to 0.0002. However, if the bottom accumulation trend formed at the hourly level successfully defends, neiro is expected to form a large convergence pattern, with an upside target of 0.0009.
In other words, as long as neiro does not break below 0.0004, the bullish trend remains intact, supported by strong bullish fundamentals. If it breaks below 0.0004, the bullish trend will completely collapse. At that time, please exit quickly to avoid being trapped.
neiro spot strategy: If you already hold spot and are in profit, you can continue to hold long as long as it does not break below 0.0004. If it breaks below 0.0004, immediately take profits and exit, and wait for a suitable retracement to re-enter.
If you want to buy neiro, the current position is evidently not good. It is recommended to buy in batches at the daily level around 0.618 and the Vegas slow track.
That is: buy in batches between 0.00052-0.00042 to build positions, take profits at 0.0009 as appropriate, and set a stop loss at 0.0004. The risk-reward ratio is 3, which is very favorable.
$NEIRO $BTC #山寨季何时到来？
After neiro peaked at 0.0007 on May 14, it showed weakness, dropping all the way down to 0.0004 before rebounding to 0.00065, and then continuing to decline. According to the chart, there are a large number of sell orders clustered around 0.00065-0.0007. These sell orders, based on on-chain data, show that most of the selling pressure comes from traders holding for over 90 days, which brings strong selling pressure from trapped positions at the top, particularly evident at this price level.
Currently, the daily view of neiro is not optimistic. The potential double top on the daily chart has led to a significant amount of short selling from short-term traders, becoming a strong pressure on neiro aside from the trapped positions. However, it appears that the last decline did not break below the 50% of the upward range and has formed a double bottom rebound, indicating that there are still continuous new traders and whales entering the market. At this point, whether neiro can return to the bullish momentum of the previous bull market crucially depends on one key level: around 0.0004. If it breaks below the double top neckline at 0.0004, the daily double top will form, and the strong selling pressure and long position stop losses will crush neiro's bullish defense line, which may lead to a risk of retracing to 0.0002. However, if the bottom accumulation trend formed at the hourly level successfully defends, neiro is expected to form a large convergence pattern, with an upside target of 0.0009.
In other words, as long as neiro does not break below 0.0004, the bullish trend remains intact, supported by strong bullish fundamentals. If it breaks below 0.0004, the bullish trend will completely collapse. At that time, please exit quickly to avoid being trapped.
neiro spot strategy: If you already hold spot and are in profit, you can continue to hold long as long as it does not break below 0.0004. If it breaks below 0.0004, immediately take profits and exit, and wait for a suitable retracement to re-enter.
If you want to buy neiro, the current position is evidently not good. It is recommended to buy in batches at the daily level around 0.618 and the Vegas slow track.
That is: buy in batches between 0.00052-0.00042 to build positions, take profits at 0.0009 as appropriate, and set a stop loss at 0.0004. The risk-reward ratio is 3, which is very favorable.
$NEIRO $BTC #山寨季何时到来？
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U.S. credit rating downgrade, will Bitcoin soar to $150,000?
Recently, the U.S. credit rating has faced another blow. Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, joining the ranks of S&P and Fitch, which had already taken action. The U.S., once viewed globally as the 'most reliable debtor,' is now downgraded by three top rating agencies in a row, marking a substantial phase in the weakening of the dollar's credit system. For Bitcoin investors, this is not alarmism, but possibly a rare historical turning point.
The U.S. fiscal deficit is climbing, with total federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and interest payments skyrocketing, while Congress continues to argue over tax cuts and more spending. In this context, the global market is beginning to truly realize: the dollar is not 'forever safe,' and the U.S. is not 'infinitely overdrawn.' Investors naturally begin to seek alternatives, and Bitcoin is becoming a dark horse in this 'great escape from safe-haven assets.'
The U.S. fiscal deficit is climbing, with total federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and interest payments skyrocketing, while Congress continues to argue over tax cuts and more spending. In this context, the global market is beginning to truly realize: the dollar is not 'forever safe,' and the U.S. is not 'infinitely overdrawn.' Investors naturally begin to seek alternatives, and Bitcoin is becoming a dark horse in this 'great escape from safe-haven assets.'
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The precise signal was sent on May 8th
Those who chose to enter immediately after seeing my post have probably more than doubled by now, right?
$NEIRO
Those who chose to enter immediately after seeing my post have probably more than doubled by now, right?
$NEIRO
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No Rate Cuts!!! Will Powell Be Fired?
From the storm of trade tariffs to the shadows of Capitol Hill, Powell is under unprecedented dual attacks from public opinion and politics. Trump is angrily accusing him of not cutting interest rates 'in a timely manner' while threatening in the media to oust him; many Republicans in Congress view him as the last line of defense against political interference. The biggest question now is: what 'principled mistake' has Powell made, and does Trump really hold the 'termination order'?
Why are Republican lawmakers collectively 'clinging to the pillars'?
Surprisingly, within the Republican Party, there are far more supporters of Powell than expected. Representatives like Lucas from Oklahoma and Cramer from North Dakota are dissatisfied with Powell's hesitation on inflation and do not want to see the Federal Reserve being directly 'manipulated' by the White House. 'Considering the complex situation, he has acted relatively steadily,' Lucas stated; 'his presence gives the market more confidence,' Cramer commented. Even Senator Scott, who has always been 'watching' the Federal Reserve, said, 'If Powell is ousted, the market will panic more.'
Why are Republican lawmakers collectively 'clinging to the pillars'?
Surprisingly, within the Republican Party, there are far more supporters of Powell than expected. Representatives like Lucas from Oklahoma and Cramer from North Dakota are dissatisfied with Powell's hesitation on inflation and do not want to see the Federal Reserve being directly 'manipulated' by the White House. 'Considering the complex situation, he has acted relatively steadily,' Lucas stated; 'his presence gives the market more confidence,' Cramer commented. Even Senator Scott, who has always been 'watching' the Federal Reserve, said, 'If Powell is ousted, the market will panic more.'
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Weekly Market Data Analysis - May 8, 2025
Order Data Tendency:
BTC/USDT Exchange Order Book Heatmap and Main Transactions show that the recent price rebounded from around $97,500 to nearly the $99,700-$100,000 area (the dark horizontal bars on the right show massive sell orders suppressing the price). The green and red dots represent large buy and sell transactions, respectively: it can be seen that there were substantial bull purchases near $97,500 (green circles), while there were large sell transactions above $99,700 (red circles), reflecting the contest between bulls and bears at key price levels.
From the four-hour K-line perspective, BTC/USDT has recently maintained an overall upward trend, with bulls repeatedly holding key support during pullbacks and pushing prices higher, gradually increasing the highs and lows. However, as prices approach $100,000, this historic psychological level, upward momentum begins to encounter significant resistance. Order book data further reveals market sentiment divergence:
BTC/USDT Exchange Order Book Heatmap and Main Transactions show that the recent price rebounded from around $97,500 to nearly the $99,700-$100,000 area (the dark horizontal bars on the right show massive sell orders suppressing the price). The green and red dots represent large buy and sell transactions, respectively: it can be seen that there were substantial bull purchases near $97,500 (green circles), while there were large sell transactions above $99,700 (red circles), reflecting the contest between bulls and bears at key price levels.
From the four-hour K-line perspective, BTC/USDT has recently maintained an overall upward trend, with bulls repeatedly holding key support during pullbacks and pushing prices higher, gradually increasing the highs and lows. However, as prices approach $100,000, this historic psychological level, upward momentum begins to encounter significant resistance. Order book data further reveals market sentiment divergence:
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The Federal Reserve stubbornly refuses to cut rates, Powell says 'wait' 22 times, is the bull market still far away?
A wave of interest rate cuts from global central banks is surging, with the European Central Bank cutting rates seven times in a row and the Bank of England also lowering rates several times, yet the Federal Reserve has remained inactive, seemingly becoming an 'island' in global monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell repeated the word 'wait' a record 22 times during a press conference, sending a clear signal: the Federal Reserve will not cut rates for the time being, no matter how urgent Trump is or how much the market pushes, Powell still wants to see clear data before taking action.
The core reason for the Federal Reserve not keeping pace with the global rhythm this time is actually very simple: the economic environment in the United States is fundamentally different from that of countries like Europe. Trump's recent series of chaotic tariff policies may not only push up domestic inflation in the short term but also make the Federal Reserve worry that cutting rates too early will recreate the 'inflation runaway' situation seen in 2021. Therefore, Powell is more inclined to patiently wait until he is sure that inflation has indeed declined before making decisions.
The core reason for the Federal Reserve not keeping pace with the global rhythm this time is actually very simple: the economic environment in the United States is fundamentally different from that of countries like Europe. Trump's recent series of chaotic tariff policies may not only push up domestic inflation in the short term but also make the Federal Reserve worry that cutting rates too early will recreate the 'inflation runaway' situation seen in 2021. Therefore, Powell is more inclined to patiently wait until he is sure that inflation has indeed declined before making decisions.
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"Ball" Powell, what exactly do you want to do???
Central banks around the world are busy cutting interest rates, but the Federal Reserve is standing still. Powell emphasized "wait" 22 times at the press conference, revealing the Fed's determination not to rush into rate cuts. This is not the Fed intentionally "going against the trend," but rather a pitfall created by Trump's tariff policy: if they cut rates too early, it could trigger a new round of inflation; if they delay too long, they might miss the turning point of an economic recession.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will start a series of three rate cuts as early as July, while JPMorgan believes it could be postponed until September. I personally think the probability of a rate cut in June is only between 20%-30%. The Fed will only take action early if the job market deteriorates rapidly (non-farm payroll drops below 100,000) or inflation falls quickly below 2%.
For the market, a rate cut by the Fed is the core catalyst for starting the imitation season. In the short term, the BTC price will likely maintain high volatility, but once a clear signal of a rate cut appears in June, market sentiment will quickly turn optimistic, and the altcoin may see a rapid rise, ushering in a new round of upward momentum. Right now, the best approach is to closely monitor the changes in non-farm payroll and CPI data over the next few months, prepare in advance + hold spot positions, rather than waiting to enter the market after the actual rate cut announcement and chasing high prices.
$BTC $NEIRO #美联储 #美联储FOMC会议
(Full article - Market Outlook can be found in the long article on my personal homepage)
Central banks around the world are busy cutting interest rates, but the Federal Reserve is standing still. Powell emphasized "wait" 22 times at the press conference, revealing the Fed's determination not to rush into rate cuts. This is not the Fed intentionally "going against the trend," but rather a pitfall created by Trump's tariff policy: if they cut rates too early, it could trigger a new round of inflation; if they delay too long, they might miss the turning point of an economic recession.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will start a series of three rate cuts as early as July, while JPMorgan believes it could be postponed until September. I personally think the probability of a rate cut in June is only between 20%-30%. The Fed will only take action early if the job market deteriorates rapidly (non-farm payroll drops below 100,000) or inflation falls quickly below 2%.
For the market, a rate cut by the Fed is the core catalyst for starting the imitation season. In the short term, the BTC price will likely maintain high volatility, but once a clear signal of a rate cut appears in June, market sentiment will quickly turn optimistic, and the altcoin may see a rapid rise, ushering in a new round of upward momentum. Right now, the best approach is to closely monitor the changes in non-farm payroll and CPI data over the next few months, prepare in advance + hold spot positions, rather than waiting to enter the market after the actual rate cut announcement and chasing high prices.
$BTC $NEIRO #美联储 #美联储FOMC会议
(Full article - Market Outlook can be found in the long article on my personal homepage)
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"When will the 'timid' Powell actually cut rates?"
Trump's sudden maneuvers have thrown an already complicated economic situation into complete chaos. The sudden attack of tariffs not only caught the market off guard but also forced the Federal Reserve into a position where there is no good option. Now Powell's troubles have arrived: on one side is the rising risk of inflation, and on the other is the obvious concern of slowing growth. To cut or not to cut? No matter how they choose, half the people are ready to criticize.
For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has adhered to a 'hard stance' strategy: if inflation does not meet standards, they will never cut rates. However, now Trump's trade policy seems like a deep-water bomb, splattering inflation expectations all over the place. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too early, it might fuel price increases and the specter of inflation could return; but if they continue to maintain an 'unmoved' posture, the consequences of an economic slowdown might be hard to manage.
For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has adhered to a 'hard stance' strategy: if inflation does not meet standards, they will never cut rates. However, now Trump's trade policy seems like a deep-water bomb, splattering inflation expectations all over the place. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too early, it might fuel price increases and the specter of inflation could return; but if they continue to maintain an 'unmoved' posture, the consequences of an economic slowdown might be hard to manage.
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Strong Employment = No Interest Rate Cuts? The Fed Stays Tough, Trump Loses It, What About Bitcoin?
The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were released, adding 177,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, so strong that even Trump couldn't stand it and directly lashed out: when will you lower interest rates? Powell, what are you waiting for?
As a result, the market completely ignored him and instead took actions that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to the sky, with the two-year yield experiencing the largest increase since October of last year, making it very clear: don't expect rate cuts in June, July is also uncertain.
You read that right, strong data = delayed rate cuts = risk assets stagnating.
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin, which has recently been a classic case of "wanting to rise but unable to, wanting to fall but not falling," being repeatedly pressed in place by macro sentiment. Did you think it was about to take off? As soon as the data was released, it shut down on the spot.
But don't rush, if we really have to wait for the data to start weakening, for example:
• CPI falls below 2.5%
• Non-farm employment below 100,000
• Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%
No matter how tough the Fed is, it will have to pivot, and market liquidity will immediately reverse. By then, BTC hitting 100,000 will just be a matter of course.
The current issue is that the White House wants to ease, but Powell is holding firm, and the market is watching the show in the middle.
As a crypto player, you need to understand one thing: the speed of the shift in sentiment is much faster than the speed at which you click on contracts.
In summary: "The tougher the Fed, the more Bitcoin gets suppressed; once it eases, Bitcoin goes crazy."
For those still hesitating, waiting to chase when interest rates are really cut might mean you can't even get in on the action.
The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were released, adding 177,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, so strong that even Trump couldn't stand it and directly lashed out: when will you lower interest rates? Powell, what are you waiting for?
As a result, the market completely ignored him and instead took actions that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to the sky, with the two-year yield experiencing the largest increase since October of last year, making it very clear: don't expect rate cuts in June, July is also uncertain.
You read that right, strong data = delayed rate cuts = risk assets stagnating.
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin, which has recently been a classic case of "wanting to rise but unable to, wanting to fall but not falling," being repeatedly pressed in place by macro sentiment. Did you think it was about to take off? As soon as the data was released, it shut down on the spot.
But don't rush, if we really have to wait for the data to start weakening, for example:
• CPI falls below 2.5%
• Non-farm employment below 100,000
• Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%
No matter how tough the Fed is, it will have to pivot, and market liquidity will immediately reverse. By then, BTC hitting 100,000 will just be a matter of course.
The current issue is that the White House wants to ease, but Powell is holding firm, and the market is watching the show in the middle.
As a crypto player, you need to understand one thing: the speed of the shift in sentiment is much faster than the speed at which you click on contracts.
In summary: "The tougher the Fed, the more Bitcoin gets suppressed; once it eases, Bitcoin goes crazy."
For those still hesitating, waiting to chase when interest rates are really cut might mean you can't even get in on the action.
NEIRO/USDT
Buy
Price/Amount
0.0002037/2454604
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Strong Employment = Delayed Rate Cuts? Or the Prelude to a New Surge for Bitcoin?
Last Friday, when the U.S. April non-farm data was released—new jobs increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Just 15 minutes after the data was announced, U.S. President Trump couldn't help but jump in to say: There’s no reason not to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve, what are you waiting for? But the market didn't listen to him at all. Instead, U.S. Treasury yields soared, with the two-year Treasury recording its largest two-day increase since October last year. Traders pushed back rate cut expectations from June to July and even September, all while showing an attitude of 'Powell won’t listen to your nonsense, Trump.'
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Today's Operation Suggestion: Layout around the key support level of 95,100. A large number of buy orders are placed on the chart, indicating that the main force is supporting there, so consider gradually buying the dip.
Spot trading segment:
1: First, place a portion of your position around 95,200, then add positions as it goes down to 94300–93300, with heavier buying the closer it gets to support. Overall, enter in three batches, not all at once, to be safer.
Set the stop loss below 92800. If the main force's defense line is breached, withdraw decisively, even if it means taking a loss. If it goes up, the first target above is 96,000, which is the previous high.
Conversely, if 93000 is directly breached and falls with volume, then don’t hold on stubbornly; wait for the price to retrace and if it doesn’t, go short, with a short-term target around 94,000.
In summary: Go long in the densely liquid support area, reverse if it breaks, and don’t hold on stubbornly.
$BTC
Spot trading segment:
1: First, place a portion of your position around 95,200, then add positions as it goes down to 94300–93300, with heavier buying the closer it gets to support. Overall, enter in three batches, not all at once, to be safer.
Set the stop loss below 92800. If the main force's defense line is breached, withdraw decisively, even if it means taking a loss. If it goes up, the first target above is 96,000, which is the previous high.
Conversely, if 93000 is directly breached and falls with volume, then don’t hold on stubbornly; wait for the price to retrace and if it doesn’t, go short, with a short-term target around 94,000.
In summary: Go long in the densely liquid support area, reverse if it breaks, and don’t hold on stubbornly.
$BTC
See original
When will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates?!?
Recently, U.S. economic data has remained strong, with 177,000 new non-farm jobs added in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.2%, lower than the Federal Reserve's expectation of 4.4% by the end of the year, indicating that the U.S. job market remains resilient. As a result, there is no pressing reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term, and rates may remain high. The dollar index has also stayed above 100 recently, which means Bitcoin is still facing significant pressure in the short term, and the market may continue to oscillate at high levels.
On the other hand, U.S. corporate earnings reports have recently outperformed expectations. About two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 index have disclosed their earnings, with overall profits exceeding expectations by about 7%, far higher than the long-term average of 4.3%. Tech giants Microsoft and Meta have seen their stock prices rise significantly due to favorable earnings reports, which has also driven a sustained rebound in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record for the longest nine-day winning streak in nearly a year. At the same time, the well-known stock market valuation tool, the 'Buffett Indicator', has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024, indicating that U.S. stocks are currently at a relatively cheap level, and investor confidence is beginning to recover. A strengthening stock market is generally accompanied by an increase in risk appetite, which also provides potential support for Bitcoin's rise in the future.
However, the actual breakthrough in Bitcoin prices in the future depends on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In the future, we need to closely monitor two key data points:
First is the inflation data. If the monthly CPI data clearly falls below 2.5%, such as if the CPI for May or June is reported at 2.4%, this would signify a relief in inflationary pressures and open up space for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Second is the signal of weakness in employment data. Suppose in a future month, non-farm payrolls fall below 100,000, for example, if the non-farm payrolls for July are only around 80,000, while the unemployment rate rises to 4.5% or even higher, this combination of data would significantly enhance the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Considering the current economic trends and market expectations, although the probability of a rate cut in June has significantly decreased, mainstream analytical institutions (such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays) generally expect the Federal Reserve to possibly initiate its first rate cut between late Q3 of this year and between July and September 2025. Currently, maintaining a low position in spot trading for long-term holding is the best strategy.
Recently, U.S. economic data has remained strong, with 177,000 new non-farm jobs added in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.2%, lower than the Federal Reserve's expectation of 4.4% by the end of the year, indicating that the U.S. job market remains resilient. As a result, there is no pressing reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term, and rates may remain high. The dollar index has also stayed above 100 recently, which means Bitcoin is still facing significant pressure in the short term, and the market may continue to oscillate at high levels.
On the other hand, U.S. corporate earnings reports have recently outperformed expectations. About two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 index have disclosed their earnings, with overall profits exceeding expectations by about 7%, far higher than the long-term average of 4.3%. Tech giants Microsoft and Meta have seen their stock prices rise significantly due to favorable earnings reports, which has also driven a sustained rebound in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record for the longest nine-day winning streak in nearly a year. At the same time, the well-known stock market valuation tool, the 'Buffett Indicator', has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024, indicating that U.S. stocks are currently at a relatively cheap level, and investor confidence is beginning to recover. A strengthening stock market is generally accompanied by an increase in risk appetite, which also provides potential support for Bitcoin's rise in the future.
However, the actual breakthrough in Bitcoin prices in the future depends on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In the future, we need to closely monitor two key data points:
First is the inflation data. If the monthly CPI data clearly falls below 2.5%, such as if the CPI for May or June is reported at 2.4%, this would signify a relief in inflationary pressures and open up space for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Second is the signal of weakness in employment data. Suppose in a future month, non-farm payrolls fall below 100,000, for example, if the non-farm payrolls for July are only around 80,000, while the unemployment rate rises to 4.5% or even higher, this combination of data would significantly enhance the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Considering the current economic trends and market expectations, although the probability of a rate cut in June has significantly decreased, mainstream analytical institutions (such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays) generally expect the Federal Reserve to possibly initiate its first rate cut between late Q3 of this year and between July and September 2025. Currently, maintaining a low position in spot trading for long-term holding is the best strategy.
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