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Position management - the secret to escape from being a leek
80% of the teachers in the square are just talking nonsense, and the remaining 10% are pure leeks Without position management, stop loss, and just mindlessly holding orders, how can it be called trading? If I really like playing like this, I might as well buy lottery tickets... The ugly profit and loss ratio, the unattainable previous high stop-profit, and the fact that I can make money is purely luck, not trading. Only by learning position management can you be called a qualified trader, always remember this What is a transaction?
In contract trading, position management is as important as a man’s penis. What is "trading"? The so-called trading is actually to make profits from the market by relying on one's own understanding of the market, using a high winning rate and high profit-loss ratio, and taking risks through opening and closing positions again and again.
There are a large number of buy orders near BTC 93700. If it temporarily drops to this position, you can actively position for a bullish event contract at the 30-minute level.
Market analysis represents personal opinion only, please manage your own risks. $BTC #事件合约收益
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柴老板chailaoban185
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Bullish
Strong Employment = No Interest Rate Cuts? The Fed Stays Tough, Trump Loses It, What About Bitcoin?
The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were released, adding 177,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, so strong that even Trump couldn't stand it and directly lashed out: when will you lower interest rates? Powell, what are you waiting for?
As a result, the market completely ignored him and instead took actions that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to the sky, with the two-year yield experiencing the largest increase since October of last year, making it very clear: don't expect rate cuts in June, July is also uncertain.
You read that right, strong data = delayed rate cuts = risk assets stagnating.
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin, which has recently been a classic case of "wanting to rise but unable to, wanting to fall but not falling," being repeatedly pressed in place by macro sentiment. Did you think it was about to take off? As soon as the data was released, it shut down on the spot.
But don't rush, if we really have to wait for the data to start weakening, for example: • CPI falls below 2.5% • Non-farm employment below 100,000 • Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%
No matter how tough the Fed is, it will have to pivot, and market liquidity will immediately reverse. By then, BTC hitting 100,000 will just be a matter of course.
The current issue is that the White House wants to ease, but Powell is holding firm, and the market is watching the show in the middle.
As a crypto player, you need to understand one thing: the speed of the shift in sentiment is much faster than the speed at which you click on contracts.
In summary: "The tougher the Fed, the more Bitcoin gets suppressed; once it eases, Bitcoin goes crazy."
For those still hesitating, waiting to chase when interest rates are really cut might mean you can't even get in on the action.
Strong Employment = No Interest Rate Cuts? The Fed Stays Tough, Trump Loses It, What About Bitcoin?
The U.S. April non-farm payrolls were released, adding 177,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, so strong that even Trump couldn't stand it and directly lashed out: when will you lower interest rates? Powell, what are you waiting for?
As a result, the market completely ignored him and instead took actions that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to the sky, with the two-year yield experiencing the largest increase since October of last year, making it very clear: don't expect rate cuts in June, July is also uncertain.
You read that right, strong data = delayed rate cuts = risk assets stagnating.
Now let's take a look at Bitcoin, which has recently been a classic case of "wanting to rise but unable to, wanting to fall but not falling," being repeatedly pressed in place by macro sentiment. Did you think it was about to take off? As soon as the data was released, it shut down on the spot.
But don't rush, if we really have to wait for the data to start weakening, for example: • CPI falls below 2.5% • Non-farm employment below 100,000 • Unemployment rate breaks above 4.5%
No matter how tough the Fed is, it will have to pivot, and market liquidity will immediately reverse. By then, BTC hitting 100,000 will just be a matter of course.
The current issue is that the White House wants to ease, but Powell is holding firm, and the market is watching the show in the middle.
As a crypto player, you need to understand one thing: the speed of the shift in sentiment is much faster than the speed at which you click on contracts.
In summary: "The tougher the Fed, the more Bitcoin gets suppressed; once it eases, Bitcoin goes crazy."
For those still hesitating, waiting to chase when interest rates are really cut might mean you can't even get in on the action.
Strong Employment = Delayed Rate Cuts? Or the Prelude to a New Surge for Bitcoin?
Last Friday, when the U.S. April non-farm data was released—new jobs increased by 177,000, exceeding the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%. Just 15 minutes after the data was announced, U.S. President Trump couldn't help but jump in to say: There’s no reason not to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve, what are you waiting for? But the market didn't listen to him at all. Instead, U.S. Treasury yields soared, with the two-year Treasury recording its largest two-day increase since October last year. Traders pushed back rate cut expectations from June to July and even September, all while showing an attitude of 'Powell won’t listen to your nonsense, Trump.'
Today's Operation Suggestion: Layout around the key support level of 95,100. A large number of buy orders are placed on the chart, indicating that the main force is supporting there, so consider gradually buying the dip.
Spot trading segment: 1: First, place a portion of your position around 95,200, then add positions as it goes down to 94300–93300, with heavier buying the closer it gets to support. Overall, enter in three batches, not all at once, to be safer.
Set the stop loss below 92800. If the main force's defense line is breached, withdraw decisively, even if it means taking a loss. If it goes up, the first target above is 96,000, which is the previous high.
Conversely, if 93000 is directly breached and falls with volume, then don’t hold on stubbornly; wait for the price to retrace and if it doesn’t, go short, with a short-term target around 94,000.
In summary: Go long in the densely liquid support area, reverse if it breaks, and don’t hold on stubbornly. $BTC
When will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates?!? Recently, U.S. economic data has remained strong, with 177,000 new non-farm jobs added in April, significantly higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The unemployment rate has stabilized at 4.2%, lower than the Federal Reserve's expectation of 4.4% by the end of the year, indicating that the U.S. job market remains resilient. As a result, there is no pressing reason for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term, and rates may remain high. The dollar index has also stayed above 100 recently, which means Bitcoin is still facing significant pressure in the short term, and the market may continue to oscillate at high levels.
On the other hand, U.S. corporate earnings reports have recently outperformed expectations. About two-thirds of the companies in the S&P 500 index have disclosed their earnings, with overall profits exceeding expectations by about 7%, far higher than the long-term average of 4.3%. Tech giants Microsoft and Meta have seen their stock prices rise significantly due to favorable earnings reports, which has also driven a sustained rebound in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record for the longest nine-day winning streak in nearly a year. At the same time, the well-known stock market valuation tool, the 'Buffett Indicator', has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024, indicating that U.S. stocks are currently at a relatively cheap level, and investor confidence is beginning to recover. A strengthening stock market is generally accompanied by an increase in risk appetite, which also provides potential support for Bitcoin's rise in the future.
However, the actual breakthrough in Bitcoin prices in the future depends on the timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In the future, we need to closely monitor two key data points:
First is the inflation data. If the monthly CPI data clearly falls below 2.5%, such as if the CPI for May or June is reported at 2.4%, this would signify a relief in inflationary pressures and open up space for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.
Second is the signal of weakness in employment data. Suppose in a future month, non-farm payrolls fall below 100,000, for example, if the non-farm payrolls for July are only around 80,000, while the unemployment rate rises to 4.5% or even higher, this combination of data would significantly enhance the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Considering the current economic trends and market expectations, although the probability of a rate cut in June has significantly decreased, mainstream analytical institutions (such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays) generally expect the Federal Reserve to possibly initiate its first rate cut between late Q3 of this year and between July and September 2025. Currently, maintaining a low position in spot trading for long-term holding is the best strategy.
【Trump's Message to Business Students: Stop Focusing on Cryptocurrency and Stocks, Get to Work!】
Trump is making bold statements again! This time he has directed his remarks at American business students. At a university graduation ceremony, Trump earnestly advised these future 'capital eagles': stop always thinking about trading finance and speculating; instead, let’s earnestly go to factories, construction sites, and workshops to do some real work!
He said that right now in America, factories, shipyards, and infrastructure are being built everywhere, and there is a need for high-quality talents like you to 'move bricks'. What you have learned in management, marketing, and finance should not just be used for creating charts and calculating annualized returns in Excel, but should be applied to how to forge steel stronger and pour concrete more solidly.
So, is he implying that we should all stop playing in the crypto space while he continues to do so? 🤔
To be honest, there is some truth to this statement in today's crypto space. You can make a living through speculation, but if you're always thinking about 'lying down to win', you will eventually suffer great losses. Many projects in the crypto space that can go far are not reliant on PPTs or Roadmaps, but rather on real-world applications, continuous investment in development, and the sincere efforts of the community. $OM $BNB #加密市场反弹
【Non-Farm Payroll Preview | Where Will the Crypto Market Go Under Employment Data?】
This Friday's non-farm payroll data is undoubtedly the focus of the market. Yesterday, although the U.S. first-quarter GDP seemed somewhat exaggerated, the market quickly realized that the “resilience” of the U.S. economy still exists. However, whether this resilience comes from real growth or is driven by short-term policy effects such as tariffs that promote domestic demand expansion remains to be confirmed.
From the perspective of the unemployment rate, the market expects it to remain at 4.2% this month, but I personally believe there is a certain upward risk, and it may rise to 4.3% or even 4.4%. The reason is simple: on the one hand, the Federal Reserve has already acknowledged the slowdown in economic growth; on the other hand, the latest PCE data shows that wage growth has already fallen, while household spending is still on the rise. This divergence indicates that consumption is being supported by savings, and once the marginal capacity of savings declines, the unemployment rate may rise rapidly.
If the unemployment rate does indeed increase in this Friday's non-farm payroll data, it will depend on whether the market chooses the optimistic trading logic of “bad news is fully priced in” or the risk-averse logic of “economic downturn.” If it is the latter, risk assets like BTC may be under pressure in the short term, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to release interest rate cut expectations in advance, thereby triggering “liquidity trading” again.
In other words, the logic of “bad data means good trading” is still valid; it just needs to be observed whether market sentiment can keep up.
For the cryptocurrency market, if the unemployment rate jumps, and non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, while the market adopts the logic of “celebrating bad news,” BTC may re-test the $64,000 level and attempt to stabilize above previous highs. Conversely, if sentiment is bearish, it may be necessary to pay attention to the key support at $60,000.
Short-term Focus: • Whether non-farm employment numbers are below expectations (<200k) • Whether the unemployment rate is above 4.2% • Whether market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year heat up in advance #加密市场反弹 $BTC
sol USDT Currently, there is a noticeable bottom consolidation structure, and it is trending towards a triangular convergence. It has now reached the best entry range, with the previous low as stop loss and the previous high as take profit, with a risk-reward ratio of 2 suitable for entering a long position. #市场清算 $sol
Are you kidding? This is the off-chain exchange rate. Decoupling refers to the on-chain exchange rate decoupling. Do you have no common sense?
crypto-链界洞察
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Brothers, USDT started to decouple two days ago! Hurry up and change USDT to USDC! The offshore RMB exchange rate is now 7.35! The price of USDT on C2C is 7.24, which has depreciated by more than 1 point, The exchange rate of USDC is still 7.32! USDT is beginning to be in danger! Change USDC in advance!
The market maker for wif is dwf... The trading characteristic is extreme volatility and sharp declines. Neiro is also market making by dwf. This kind of 'local dog' places more importance on position rather than shape. Previously, wif went as low as 0.9, and at that time, wasn't the shape even worse than now? It still rose to 4.8. Compared to ordi, although the structure is strong, the selling pressure above 40 is too intense, making every breakout very difficult. It is highly likely to be the slowest local dog to take profits.
五味子
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Recently, I don't really recommend meme coins, because after this round of bull market, 99% of meme coins will go to zero. However, just from a technical perspective, several meme coins are at the daily level bottom. If you want to play, you can enter with a small amount of funds. 1. ordi, 25.73 limit order, stop loss 23 2. floki, 17159 limit order, stop loss 14695 3. neiro, 92299 limit order, stop loss 85463 4. wil, 1.77 limit order, stop loss 1.725 From the perspective of technical strength, ordi > floki > neiro > wif. It can be said that these few will not return to the previous highs of this one-sided increase. $NEIRO
Like 👍+ Follow! Keep sending orders! $ETH 12.09 Market Advice: • ETH Strategy: Actively go long around 3800, definitely do not short when it reaches 4000! • Currently, signs of a vacuum and missing orders are appearing at the top of Ethereum, and it is very likely to reach a new high next week, aiming for around 4500.